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March 08, 2007
Lady Luck
Before Saturday night's game, I made the statement that games played in such torrential conditions are won by the most disciplined and well-drilled team.
When Joel Corey handed Chad Cornes that 50 metre penalty with 32 seconds left in the match, my original hypothesis might have looked pretty good. Corey had effectively handed the match to Port on a platter, all because he showed a distinct lack of discipline. Some may have said he was stiff. But the fact remains that strong discipline prevents a player from putting himself in such situations.
But my seemingly innocuous statement neglected another factor that can often play a major role in sporting events, especially close ones. I'm speaking, of course, about luck.
A let cord, an own-goal or a French-cut for four. Steven Bradbury. Or, in this case, a shot at goal hitting the post from 25 metres out.
It's the difference between sporting elation and devastation.
Geelong and Port slogged their respective innards out in the worst imaginable conditions, yet the result was not ultimately determined by one side being “better” than the other. Either team could lay claim to being deserving of playing in next week's semi finals but Geelong will be doing so because Cornes missed a shot at goal that he would have kicked 95 times out of 100. That's luck (or perhaps more correctly, probability).
It got me thinking, how much luck is involved in winning a premiership? A lot, I would say.
Luck plays a part with injuries, weather conditions, umpiring decisions, the draw and the unpredictable bounce of an oval shaped ball. Multiply these factors by a 22 week season followed by a four week finals series and no one could claim that luck isn't going to play a significant part.
Luck could be the difference between kicking a goal or watching your opponent kick one over your head. It can be the difference between a victorious post-match interview and walking up the race with your chin on your chest. It could be the difference between scraping into the eight and missing out on percentage. So of course, it could just be the difference between holding up the Premiership Cup and reminiscing about how close you came.
This is nothing exceptionally profound. It only serves to prove that you can have the best midfield, the most “stars”, the stingiest defence or the most potent forward line and it might just make the difference, but then again, it might not. You've got to give it all your best shot and then hope luck gives you that little bit extra.
So is there a lesson from all of this?
You could say that there's not a whole lot you can do about luck. But I often think about what Malcolm Blight had to say about it.
“The harder I trained the luckier I seemed to get”.
Indeed, fortune not only seems to follow the brave, it also seems to follow hard workers. Geelong have had a massive fitness focus during this pre-season, but it remains to be seen whether they've worked hard enough in other areas as well to make Lady Luck smile their way.
Posted by catempire at March 8, 2007 02:41 PM
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