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March 27, 2007
Outlook 2007 - Part 1: The Negative
I set out to prepare a piece on the outlook for the Cats in 2007 but quickly realised that providing any meaningful prediction was going to be an impossible task. The inconsistency that Geelong has regrettably become known for in recent years, combined with the multitude of football-god factors that could go either way, made me think that breaking things down into the negatives and the positives would be a much easier task than trying to forecast our fortunes using a balance of probabilities.
So here goes, starting with the negatives – the things that could hold us back from taking the next step in 2007...
Mark Thompson
It may be unfair to place this bloke squarely in the negative column, but I consider that more signs than not point this way.
For me, the biggest question mark over Thompson is his ability to cope with the strategic requirements of being an AFL coach.
I can only ever recall his public statements reflecting a single approach to his sides game – move the ball quickly and take chances to give your forwards the best opportunity in contested situations. I remember him saying this as early as 2003 and as recently as in the last few weeks. Now, this isn't to say that his ideas are limited to the above, but to have one coach in charge for seven seasons and still espousing the same broad gameplan, worries me significantly. Especially so, given the changes that the sport seems to have undergone in recent seasons.
But my concern isn't just limited to his overarching approach. Thompson seems to struggle when faced with game day situations where things aren't quite gong his way. For example, when the opposition is getting on top and seems to be exploiting personnel or strategic weakness, Bomber doesn't seem to have the ability to alter his approach to stem the tide.
I dearly hope to be proven wrong about Bomber.
Personnel
Realistically, the best 22 in 2007 is the same or very close to the way it was in 2006.
No trades were made during trade week and no real ready-made players were drafted. While Hawkins, Selwood and Djerrkura may play their fair share of games, it would be foolish to think that they can be the difference between cellar-dwelling and contending in 2007.
There were no significant long-term injuries in 2006. King and Harley are key players and both missed too many games, but only blind faith would lead one to the conclusion that 2007 will be any different in this regard.
Mooney missed five games through suspension and if the Cats are to have any say in the September action he will surely have to curb or significantly redirect his aggression. However, recent interviews with the Hairy One don't have me brimming with confidence that he is a reformed character.
Mooney moves up Cats' chain of commandAhead of tonight's game, Mooney was quick to dismiss "the stupid little things" that caused him to miss five matches last year.
"We've talked about it, dealt with it and that's in the past now," he said.
"I'll definitely be judged at the end of the year how I go ... but personally I don't think it (last year) is an issue now."
Nor does he plan to change the way he goes about his football - apart from some obvious tinkering to help steer clear of the tribunal.
"I've sat down and talked to a couple of people about it but it's not so much about changing my game ... I'll definitely be working on it but I won't be changing my game much."
All in all, you would have to say that any improvement in ladder position in 2007 must come from within. That means players like Mackie, Kelly and Tenace must come good on the faith that has been displayed in them. Time will tell whether or not they have it in them.
On-field leadership
While this has supposedly been an are of major address over summer, there surely must remain significant doubt over whether this issue – such a significant issue – has been put to bed. One injury prone captain has been replaced with another (Harley). The Vice Captain (Ling) is a one-dimensional, non-damaging and not exactly inspiring type of player. And the Deputy Vice Captain is a player who holds the league record for the most suspension in a season (Mooney).
Harley has said all of the right things during the pre-season. He's eloquent, articulate and positive. But it is on the field where the Cats have so much lacked the presence of a strong leader. Someone who could mould, direct and influence the players around him. A leader who would stop the rot when things weren't going right. There must be a significant question mark over whether Harley's body will allow him to do these things.
I question whether Harley's deputies – Ling and Mooney – have what it takes (in ability and mindset respectively) to provide the support that any captain needs. I hope to be proved wrong, but at the moment, the signs aren't great.
Hopefully, the next wave of young players – Selwood, Hawkins and Djerrkura will possess more of the natural leader abilities than our present crop of players. But even if they do, we're a way off seeing the benefits of those talents.
So that's it. Pretty depressing, hey? If you think so, stay tuned for Part II of the Season Preview - “The Positive”...
Posted by catempire at March 27, 2007 09:43 PM
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