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July 14, 2007
Round 15 Preview
Geelong v Collingwood
MCG, Saturday, 2:10pm
Teams:
Geelong
Backs: Milburn Scarlett Enright
Half-backs: Mackie Egan Harley
Centres: Corey Bartel Wojcinski
Half-forwards: Chapman Mooney Varcoe
Forwards: S Johnson Hawkins Stokes
Followers: Ottens Ling Rover: G Ablett
Interchange: Blake Kelly Hunt Selwood
Emergencies: Gardiner Byrnes D Johnson
In: Hunt
Out: Tenace
Collingwood
Backs: Johnson Wakelin O'Brien
Half-backs: H Shaw Goldsack Maxwell
Centres: Clarke Burns Licuria
Half-forwards: Thomas Cloke Davis
Forwards: Didak Rocca Lockyer
Followers: Fraser O'Bree Rover: Swan
Interchange: Iles Medhurst Pendlebury Bryan
Emergencies: Lonie Reid Cook
In: Rocca Bryan
Out: Reid Cox
Umpires:
McBurney, Margetts, Rosebury
Past 5:
R8 2006 Collingwood 22.14 (146) d Geelong 6.8 (44) MCG
R11 2005 Collingwood 18.13 (121) d Geelong 14.12 (96) Telstra Dome
R15 2004 Geelong 12.22 (94) d Collingwood 9.11 (65) Telstra Dome
R18 2003 Collingwood 14.13 (97) d Geelong 10.13 (73) Telstra Dome
R3 2003 Collingwood 18.8 (116) d Geelong 10.9 (69) MCG
Betting:
Geelong $1.53, Collingwood $2.40
The Hunt-ed
Atop the AFL ladder, two games and substantial percentage clear of West Coast, Geelong is starting to feel what it’s like to have a target on your back.
Perhaps West Coast, after being the dominant home and away side for the past three seasons, is licking its wounds for this very reason.
The longer the Cats’ winning streak extends (it currently stands at nine), the greater the pressure seems to get as focus turns to the team that everyone wants to knock of its perch.
This week it’s Collingwood’s turn.
The Pies were widely regarded at the beginning of the year as being a side that may struggle with an imbalance of experience and youth. Looking at their list, they just seemed to have too many players who had seen the back of their best footy (Buckley, Burns, O’Bree, Wakelin, Licuria), and not enough that were in their prime. On the positive side though, they had plenty of exciting young prospects that, if they were able to find their feet, could propel Collingwood up the ladder. And that’s exactly what has happened.
O'Brien, Heath Shaw, Goldsack, Clarke, Thomas, Cloke (third Cloke lucky) and Pendlebury are all super young talents. Malthouse has done a magnificent job of blending these kids into his team to offset the slowing legs of his aging stars and to complement his core of players.
Geelong is in a different phase. The Cats have generally only played one or two first year players at any one time. Selwood and Hawkins have been impressive but by no means the difference between the all-conquering Geelong of 2007 and the self-imploding side of last year.
Instead it is the stability of Geelong’s core – it’s very large core – as well as a step up to elite status by Gary Ablett and Bartel that have made a huge difference to this side.
So it is with this setup that this weekend’s clash between Geelong and Collingwood brings great anticipation to the whole competition.
Added to the mix are a number of varied and interesting factors which make tipping the result with any degree of certainty an absolute nightmare.
Take for example:
- how much motivation will Geelong have to rectify the result from last year’s game (a 102 point drubbing by the Pies);
- what impact the alleged Geelong flu will have;
- how much impact will Balme’s inside knowledge give;
- will Wakelin, O’Brien and Goldsack be able to hold the highest scoring team in the competition;
- will Josh Hunt’s inclusion help the Cats address their Achilles heal – holding dangerous small forwards (of which, Collingwood has two very good ones in Davis and Thomas);
- who will win the midfield battle between Bartel, Ablett and Ling and Burns, O’Bree and Swan;
- which ruck duo – Ottens and Blake or Fraser and Bryan- will give their midfield first use and hurt the opposition by going forward;
- will Collingwood be able to employ successfully for four quarters, the tactics Sheedy used to keep touch with the Cats for three quarters last week; and
- what impact, if any, will a huge MCG crowd and finals-like atmosphere have?
Obviously, the answers to these questions hold the key to the match.
Geelong seem to have a clear edge in class in the midfield and have a proven record this season as the best team statistically in attack and second best in defence. However, the weather, if wet as predicted, may nullify Geelong’s advantage in this regard.
If there’s any truth to the rumour that the flu has gone through the Cats group then an upset is definitely on the cards.
Collingwood have the ability to play the game well when it’s in close and contested but also have players like Shaw, Davis and possibly most of all, Thomas, who can break it open when the opportunity presents. This is possibly a mix that will trouble Geelong if it doesn’t have its game on.
All of that is enough to err on the side of the Pies. While loathed to subscribe to the concept of being “due for a loss”, if ever a team were, Geelong is now.
Collingwood by 8 points.
Posted by catempire at July 14, 2007 10:06 AM
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