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August 03, 2007
Round 18 Preview
Geelong v Richmond
Skilled Stadium
Saturday, 2:10pm
Teams
Geelong
Backs: Milburn Scarlett D Johnson
Half-backs: Mackie Egan Harley
Centres: Corey Bartel Wojcinski
Half-forwards: Kelly Mooney Selwood
Forwards: S Johnson Ottens Stokes
Followers: Blake Ling Rover: G Ablett
Interchange: N Ablett Byrnes Hunt King
Emergencies: Varcoe Gardiner Tenace
In: King Out: Enright (shoulder)
Richmond
Backs: King Thursfield J Bowden
Half-backs: Raines Polak Newman
Centres: Tambling Deledio Connors
Half-forwards: Pettifer Hughes Edwards
Forwards: Brown Riewoldt Richardson
Followers: Simmonds Johnson Rover: Foley
Interchange: Tuck Graham McGuane Tivendale
Emergencies: Jackson Moore Pattison
In: Deledio Tivendale Graham
Out: Moore Pattison Krakouer
New: Angus Graham, 20, Calder U18
Past 5
R6 2007 Geelong 35.12 (222) d Richmond 9.11 (65) Telstra Dome
R9 2006 Richmond 17.8 (110) d Geelong 12.18 (90) Skilled Stadium
R22 2005 Geelong 10.9 (69) d Richmond 10.8 (68) Skilled Stadium
R1 2005 Geelong 25.10 (160) d Richmond 15.8 (98) MCG
R19 2004 Geelong 16.18 (114) d Richmond 11.17 (83) MCG
Umpires
Farmer, Hendrie, Goldspink
Betting
Geelong $1.02, Richmond $11
________________________
The telling number from the preview stats presented above is that which represents the return on your investment of blind faith in Richmond winning. You don’t often see a team showing 10-1 in a two horse race, but the circumstances surrounding this game certainly warrant it.
The two main factors influencing this are the margin the last time these two sides met – 157 points – and the polar location of the respective sides on the ladder.
Geelong humiliated Richmond in Round 6 of this season. Heading into that game the Cats were well and truly under the pump. Two successive losses, firstly to Hawthorn in Launceston and then to the Kangaroos at Skilled, had Geelong fans reliving nightmares of 2006 that Costa and Cook had assured the faithful they would not have to endure again.
But Richmond were winless at that stage, and the hapless Tigers were just what the Cats needed to jump-start their season. They have never looked back; the drubbing of the Tigers has launched the Geelong juggernaut to 12 straight wins.
For the Cats, this reintroduction to the Black and Gold, will simply be business as usual. The Round 6 encounter will not even be spoken about. The 11 wins since count for nothing. The strength of this current Geelong side (formerly its greatest foe) is managing expectations. The only expectations these players have are that they won’t be let down by their team mates. In return, each player feels responsible to hold up his end of the bargain.
Geelong will have too much confidence and class for Richmond. It’s just too hard to see any area of the ground in which Richmond will provide trouble to the Cats.
The one notable team change is the return of former captain Steven King. The Cats are no doubt taking this opportunity to take a run at the finals with three fit ruckman. A fit King would merely be a luxury to the Cats at this stage of the season, such is the positive contribution that the Ottens-Blake combination is currently making. But Blake is still green, so the more experienced King could be valuable come finals when the heat is turned up.
Since the only way Geelong could lose is complacency and there is no sign whatsoever that it is about to rear its ugly head, the Cats will push the century margin against the Tigers for the second time this season.
Geelong by 80 points.
Posted by catempire at August 3, 2007 04:03 PM
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