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August 20, 2007
The Real Priority Pick
I not sure if I’m in an unusually positive state of mind , in way I suppose its hard not to be in a bit a haze considering our current position on the ladder or the way we seem to be winning but I’m pretty happy with the state of our list. It has a few holes in it and will require a little square-up at the end of the year but the truth is we have a lot of the stuff that every club would be happy to have. Stingy , tight backline players that play as if the they are in a perpetual state of mind meld , a group of mids that have the grit that John Wayne would be proud of and a group of forwards who show promise , are clearly not at their max and are still capable of scoring in a pandemic way. Yes I’m happy enough , not a perfect list but which list ever is. Overall , I sure like the look of our list especially compared to some others going round.
For instance , I’d really not like to be a Richmond supporter right at the moment. Just like Geelong there last Flag was decades ago but even more disheartening for the Tigers is they look another decade away from being anywhere near the mark. A decade is about the length of time under our current system it takes a team on the bottom to make it to a Grand Final. Its for this main reason that around this time every year the annual topic of list creation comes up and the dreaded word “Tanking” is thrown around like confetti at a wedding.
Tank and get the best kid. That’s the theory. Every club wants the best talent they can lay their hands on , and obviously in a system that seems to reward poor performance there will be some who wish for perverse results from there team to ensure getting the best of the best. Even more so , if having one early pick is attractive then ensuring a Priority pick seems an even more obvious method of getting a couple of young potential champions. The flaw in the argument is that a Priority Pick is no sure method for success. The Priority Pick or any pick is not a guarantee of a future champion or a champion team , it only allows a club to have first pick of all the talent available. It allows them to pick who they wish but of course it does not guarantee them getting who they need. In a way I find it ironic that a club that has shown itself to be incompetent in preparing, maintaining and utilising their current list then are expected to be smart enough to sort “the wheat from the chaff” in the underdeveloped group of youthful players in the U18’s. So often the clever clubs tend to make far more from their late picks than the clubs with the Charity picks , its why well run clubs never seem to be perennial cellar dwellers and others never seem to climb out of the mire.
Look at Carlton last year. They picked Gibbs , the obvious pick yet they are devoid of ruckmen so why didn’t they pick Leinburger who went at 4.Gibbs will be good but will he be the best long term? Who knows but one thing is certain Cartlton needs a ruckmen and the burger looks the goods. Meanwhile at the other end of the draft Port used P86 on Rodan. A player ready to go and certainly not much of a risk at P86. Would Rodan and the burger been the better way to go?
In 2005 , Carlton picked Josh Kennedy at 4 and left Pendlebury for the pies at 5 , in the same draft the Tigers picked Oakley Nichols at 8 and left Shaun Higgins for the Dogs to take at 11 meanwhile Geelong picked Mathews Stokes at 61 and added a player almost ready to go.
In 2004 , the Tigers picked Tambling at 4 and Hawthorn then picked Franklin at 5 meanwhile Geelong picked Mathew Egan at 62 a guy who is not far of All Australian at CHB
The #1 pick usually gives a very good kid to the club with the first pick but the trick to drafting is not just picking the obvious kids , its making hard choices , taking risks and most of all installing a system of extreme development for all the players on your list. The clubs who continually focus on their first pick miss the fact that its your 3rd,4th and 5th pick that are the most crucial. Sure , everyone hopes for a Chris Judd but really he is a freak and most 1st round players should develop into regular AFL players, they will develop at different rates some picked 8 could endup better that those picked at 3. Every draft mandates 3 selections and if a club is skilful then they can build with pick 30’s plus whether they got P1 or P7. Sure a club can hope to get a charity pick from the AFL but the real Priority Pick is the kid they have identified that others have missed , the ones that has slipped for what ever reason , the kid who might not be the best now but will be fantastic in 2-4 years time.
Geelong obviously believes in this method , we seem to trust our group in the VFL before picking some untried “ify” players as Rookies. And the way the GFC is going at the moment who could argue with this approach.
Posted by Turbocat at August 20, 2007 07:58 PM
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