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September 21, 2007
Preliminary Final Preview
Geelong v Collingwood
MCG, Friday 7:50pm
Teams:
Geelong
B: Harley, Scarlett, Hunt)
HB: Mackie, Milburn, Wojcinski
C: Corey, Bartel, Enright
HF: Johnson, Mooney, Selwood
F: Chapman, Ablett, Stokes
FOLL: Ottens, Ling, Ablett
I/C: Blake, Byrnes, Kelly, Rooke
EMERG: Varcoe, Prismall, Gardiner
Collingwood
B: Clement, Wakelin, Lockyer
HB: H.Shaw, O'Brien, Goldsack
C: Clarke, Burns, Buckley
HF: Maxwell, Rocca, Pendlebury
F: Thomas, Cloke, Rusling
FOLL: Richards, O'Bree, Davis
I/C: Swan, Fraser, Didak, Medhurst
EMERG: Licuria, Stanley, Bryan
IN: Fraser
OUT: Bryan
Umpires:
McBurney, McInerney, McLaren
Past 5:
R15 2007 Geelong 11.14 (80) d Collingwood 9.10 (64) MCG
R8 2006 Collingwood 22.14 (146) d Geelong 6.8 (44) MCG
R11 2005 Collingwood 18.13 (121) d Geelong 14.12 (96) Telstra Dome
R15 2004 Geelong 12.22 (94) d Collingwood 9.11 (65) Telstra Dome
R18 2003 Collingwood 14.13 (97) d Geelong 10.13 (73) Telstra Dome
Betting:
Geelong $1.26 Collingwood $3.75
___________________________________________
The season is getting pointier by the week.
Geelong’s marvellous achievements throughout the home and away season – including most recently, nine All-Australians – are becoming less and less relevant as we enter the cut-throat part of the finals.
There’s no doubt the Pies are a good “on-paper” match up for Geelong. They have the forward line height and flair that is most likely to trouble Geelong’s defence, especially sans-Egan and with a susceptible Josh Hunt. They have a good defensive mix with enough height and versatility through Clement, Wakelin and O’Brien and enough run through Shaw, Clarke and Lockyer. The midfield, while lacking the depth of Geelong’s, still boasts quality players and users in Burns, Buckley, Didak, Pendlebury and Swan.
Geelong has good match-ups in all of these areas so it’s not a case of saying either team has a decisive edge in any area of the ground, again “on-paper”.
The reason Geelong has won so many games this season is the way they have clicked as a team and the way they have blown oppositions apart.
Geelong look to jump from the blocks and pile on scoreboard pressure early (Geelong have lost only 3 out of 23 first quarters this year). They will pump the ball forward quickly and regularly hoping to overwhelm the opposition’s defence. They will isolate Mooney one-on-one because he loves the ball high and long. Wakelin will need assistance from a third man up. Johnson and Stokes have been very dangerous at the spills.
They will rebound the ball extremely well from their own defensive half. Scarlett, Harley and Milburn are excellent in the air so Collingwood will need to avoid bombing the ball indiscriminately. Once in possession, the ball is fed out to the likes of Enright, Mackie and Wojcinski who carry the ball toward the centre of the ground and look for midfield targets. Geelong play on at all costs. They don’t give the opposition a chance to man the mark or to pick up a player who has broken free ahead of the play. By keeping the ball hot, the opposition doesn’t get a chance to close the play down. The ball is put in the hands of Ablett, Mackie and Selwood to move the ball inside 50 as they do it so well.
Collingwood thrive on keeping the game tight and under pressure. If they can manage to do this for four quarters they are in with a big show. It’s a massive ask though. Geelong’s style of game is to absorb pressure (don’t be under any illusion that they can’t do this – they are one of the best pressure teams going around) and break the game open when the opportunity arises. In games when they were able to get away frequently the margins were enormous. In games when the opposition did well to shut it down, two or three ten minute bursts were usually enough to put a gap between Geelong and the opposition. Can Collingwood hurt Geelong enough when the game is tight and limit the number and duration of the periods when Geelong breaks free? This is the key in my mind.
Then there is the fitness and preparation issue. Geelong have had a near-ideal preparation with only Egan missing from the best 22 and a week off to rest the niggles. As an already super-fit side, they couldn’t ask for a better preparation. Collingwood on the other hand, have acknowledged that they are up against it with their “low-altitude” return from Perth after a game that went to extra time. They ran that one out well, but at this stage of the season, a big question mark must remain over whether they have the run in their legs to stop Geelong.
Expect an explosive start to the game. If Collingwood has anything left in the tank that’s when it will be shown. If Geelong can absorb the initial barrage, then break the game open as Collingwood wearies, a Grand Final berth awaits.
Geelong by 28 points.
Posted by catempire at September 21, 2007 03:22 PM
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