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September 08, 2007
QUALIFYING FINAL PREVIEW
Geelong v Kangaroos
MCG
Sunday, 2:45pm
Teams
GEELONG
Backs: J Hunt Scarlett Harley
Half-backs: Mackie Milburn Wojcinski
Centres: Enright Bartel Corey
Half-forwards: S Johnson Mooney Selwood
Forwards: Chapman N Ablett Stokes
Followers: Ottens Ling G Ablett
Interchange: Blake Byrnes Kelly Rooke
Emergencies: Hawkins Varcoe King
In: Rooke Bartel
Out: Egan (broken foot) Varcoe
KANGAROOS
Backs: Pratt Brown Archer
Half-backs: Sinclair Watt Smith
Centres: Wells Simpson Harvey
Half-forwards: Edwards Hale Sansbury
Forwards: Jones Petrie Grant
Followers: McIntosh Rawlings Harris
Interchange: Swallow Firrito Gibson McMahon
Emergencies: Lower Hansen Harding
In: Firrito
Out: Green (suspended)
Umpires
Margetts, McLaren, Jeffrey
Past five
R20 2007 Geelong 17.16 (118) d Kangaroos 13.13 (91) Telstra Dome
R5 2007 Kangaroos 18.10 (118) d Geelong 15.12 (102) Skilled Stadium
R17 2006 Kangaroos 13.12 (90) d Geelong 8.12 (60) Manuka Oval
R2 2006 Geelong 22.6 (138) d Kangaroos 10.9 (69) Skilled Stadium
R9 2005 Geelong 22.14 (146) d Kangaroos 8.13 (61) Skilled Stadium
Betting
Geelong $1.25, Kangaroos $3.65
______________________________
Well, this is it. This is what we've been waiting for all season. The Big Stage. The stuff that matters.
Geelong's stellar home and away season – winning 18 games including a 15 game streak - has given them ideal position going into the finals. Perched atop of the ladder, the Cats get a home final and the prospect of a week off should they defeat the Kangaroos.
The news going into this game was mixed for the Cats.
Confirmation that rising star centre half back Matthew Egan had broken his foot threw an unwanted complication to finals planning. Egan has had a breakout year and made the position his own, giving Geelong the luxury of playing Scarlett in a more attacking role and Harley on the dangerous medium and small forwards. It has been a combination that has worked sublimely.
Now the Cats must shuffle. It will be horses for courses, so with the Roos only featuring two tall forwards in Hale and Petrie, the Cats may not need to upset the balance too much. Keeping the hands of the Roos defence full with three tall options of our own – Mooney, Nathan Ablett and a resting Ottens – should ensure that the Roos can't create a mismatch.
On the plus side, Brownlow contender Jimmy Bartel and hard nut Max Rooke will be a welcome return to the Geelong midfield.
Bartel missed just two games after his appendectomy and Rooke has made a long awaited return after receiving alternative therapy on his troubled hamstring in Germany.
These inclusions bring Geelong's formidable midfield back to full strength. Something that our forwards and the likes of Joel Corey, James Kelly and Gary Ablett will benefit from.
An interesting stat leading into the finals is the way that sides have performed against other finals sides throughout the year. In this regard, Geelong, not surprisingly, finished the season with eight wins and three losses (Kangaroos, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide). The Roos, on the other hand, fare no where near as well. The Roos won just three against the other top seven sides (Geelong, Sydney and Hawthorn) and went down on seven occasions. On that measure, one wonders whether the Roos' top four finish flatters their form to some extent.
The midfield battle between the sides is once again intriguing. Last time they met, Bartel was dominant with 36 possessions. The Roos cannot let him dictate like that again so expect Adam Simpson to try to clamp down on him.
That leaves Cameron Ling without an opponent after blanketing North's captain in keeping him to just 10 possessions in the round 20 encounter. The Kangaroos most dangerous player, and Brownlow rival to Ablett and Bartel, is Brent Harvey. It's hard to see North winning the game without Harvey collecting 25 possessions and kicking a couple of goals. For this reason alone, Ling should get the job. When Harvey goes forward, Enright should take him and Ling should look to create a scoring option for the Cats. Ling's 27 goals this season have been a revelation within a midfield that has traditionally struggled to kick goals.
There's little doubt Brady Rawlings will take on Gary Ablett again. Ablett showed why he is a Brownlow contender when these two last went head-to-head with Ablett managing to shake the tag for 31 possessions and two telling goals. Rawlings wants, and needs, revenge for the Roos to win the match.
The other battle being anticipated is that between All-Australian contender Hamish McIntosh and Cats in form big man Brad Ottens. Their numbers for the season read remarkably similarly. McIntosh played three more games so on averages, McIntosh shades Ottens in possessions (16 to 13) and hitouts (18.7 to 18.3), but Ottens' determination and versatility are exemplified by his lead in tackles (3 to 1) and goals (17 to 10 for the season). In their last encounter, McIntosh had 14 possessions, 18 hitouts and a goal, while Ottens had 16 possessions, 21 possessions and a goal. Perhaps on that reading, it will be the side that doesn't give away an advantage when Hale and Blake relieve their first choice team mates.
Geelong are rightfully solid favourites going into this game. They are the team to beat after finishing three games clear on top of the ladder. Just three weeks ago, the Cats did not look to troubled in despatching with a keen Roos outfit. The Cats look to have the edge in the midfield and will trouble the Roos again with their scoring power. The Roos will rely on a few – Harvey, Wells and McIntosh in particular – to get them over the line. Hold two out of three of those and Geelong will not be troubled.
Geelong by 30 points.
Posted by catempire at September 8, 2007 12:36 PM
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