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September 20, 2007
The Judd Paradox
Is there any doubt that Chris Judd has changed the drafting mindset? Pre Judd most thought draft picks were of vague value , and certainly not as valuable as a ready made quality senior player. A kid who looked a million dollars in the U18’s could often be found out when playing in the real stuff , consequently clubs would be willing to let picks go , even early ones , if the right player was offered. Post Judd , that has all changed. The Judd draft , 2001 , showed graphically the long term pros and cons off giving up early picks and the importance of picking well. It showed the quality of the kids coming thru and the potential gain of drafting a potential champion like Judd. It caused a total shift in the way lists were built.
In that super draft , the Hawks did a deal with Freo and got P1 for a couple of senior players. The players they gave , although good , would never live up to the names of Hodge, Ball, Judd and Bartel and the Dockers probably looked the poorer for it. With the pick , the Hawks took Hodge preferring him over Judd. Many thought the choice suspect but as time has gone on fewer and fewer can question the quality of their choice. Hodge took a little time , a more natural amount of time to mature compared to Judd but he Hodge is quality. Judd however stepped into football and made it his own like few of any age do and in the process he become the poster boy for the drafting process and the quality of the kids coming thru.
Judd , being so good basically killed the ability to trade for early picks for the fear of being made a fool of. These days , any club would have to be extremely confident in its current list or be on the end an enormously favourable deal to trade away a single digit draft pick. To trade early picks is like trading your heritage , to do it you run the risk of robbing your club of not just a good AFL player but a player that could play 200 games , a player who could become a champion for your club and in this age of footy where we tend to use terms from other games , a player who could become a franchise player. Imagine , how embarrassing would it be when a traded pick becomes a franchise player for another club.
Which brings us to this year. The man himself , Chris Judd wish’s to be traded. The one who changed the system , the man who changed people's thought process is now trying to be traded. Judd at 24 could hardly be better credentialed , a premiership player , a Best and Fairest winner , a Brownlow and a Norm Smith medalist . He is in the elite of the elite , he is so good that any club would and should be desperate to get him in their jumper. Yet it will be extremely difficult to arrange a trade for him. We have arrived at the Judd Paradox. Which club is willing to give up potential Judd's to get the Judd?
Judd's worth to a side would be more than any player in this coming draft yet it will be a very costly exercise to get the early picks it will take to get him. Judd would probably love to go to the pies and I’m sure they’d love to have him but how to make it happen.The Pies have no early picks , their only choice is to trade to get early picks and those trades have the potential to rip the guts out their quality youth stocks. Their loss could neutralise the potential lift in public relations from getting the best player in the comp and dog them for years to come.
Its for this reason , I can see Judd being the cause of another change in drafting , in fact he may well cause a rule change. If Judd fails to get where he wants , if a club fails to get the picks required to get the job done , if WC fails to get adequate compensation there will be an almighty screaming from the effected parties. What could happen? It would not surprise me at all to see the ability to trade future draft picks introduced. In the Judd situation it would give Collingwood the flexibility to get Judd without being forced to trade three or four players to get early picks. It would give WC the chance to receive a fair recompense , even if its over a longer period of time. It could also be far fairer on players who could be into forced movement , possibly interstate.It would grease the trading process which may allow more player movement.
I fear if something isn’t done to make it easier for established players to move clubs then there could be an almighty push for Free Agency. If this happens then we will be starting to head down the path of Premier League and we will be heading down the path of a comp that’s dominated be the financially strong clubs. We in Geelong are not a weak club yet , it would almost be beyond believe to think we could match the might of West Coast , Freo and Adelaide let alone the usual suspects in Victoria. In a totally unrestricted market we will struggle. Imagine in a year where a financially mediocre club had 9 All-Australians , and some where coming out of contract. Just how could that club match the offers that would come their way. They couldn’t. We in Geelong are not mediocre but even we would run the risk of becoming a breeding ground for super clubs. The place where players learn their trade before departing for the big dollars. Geelong would be like soccer in Australia, a backwater with immature and over the hill players.
There is no doubt Judd on the field has set a very high standard , his play is almost with comparison yet Judd off the field may yet have even more effect on the game in the long term and I doubt that effect would be good for us. For the sake of all , lets hope his trade is resolved in a reasonable and fair manner.
Posted by Turbocat at September 20, 2007 07:52 PM
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