March 20, 2008
ROUND 1 PREVIEW
Port Adelaide v Geelong
AAMI Stadium
8:45pm, Friday 20 March
Teams
GEELONG
B: Tom Harley, Matthew Scarlett, Josh Hunt
HB: Darren Milburn, Andrew Mackie, Corey Enright
C: Cameron Ling, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel
HF: Steve Johnson, Cameron Mooney, Paul Chapman
F: Ryan Gamble, Tom Hawkins, Mathew Stokes
Foll: Mark Blake, Gary Ablett, Joel Corey
I/C: Trent West, Shannon Byrnes, James Kelly, Kane Tenace
EMG: Harry Taylor, David Johnson, Brent Prismall
New: Trent West (Gippsland Under-18)
PORT ADELAIDE
B: Michael Pettigrew, Alipate Carlile, Jacob Surjan
HB: Peter Burgoyne, Toby Thurstans, Domenic Cassisi
C: Travis Boak, Chad Cornes, Kane Cornes
HF: David Rodan, Justin Westhoff, Danyle Pearce
F: Daniel Motlop, Warren Tredrea, Brett Ebert
Foll: Brendon Lade, Steven Salopek, Shaun Burgoyne
I/C: Dean Brogan, Tom Logan, Matthew Thomas, Paul Stewart
EMG: Greg Bentley, Nick Lower, Fabian DeLuca
New: Paul Stewart (Woodville-West Torrens)
Umpires
Donlon, Rosebury, Avon
Past five
GF 2007 Geelong 24.19 (163) d Port Adelaide 6.8 (44) MCG
R21 2007 Port Adelaide 16.10 (106) d Geelong 15.11 (101) Skilled Stadium
R9 2007 Geelong 16.20 (116) d Port Adelaide 8.12 (60) AAMI Stadium
R15 2006 Geelong 9.14 (68) d Port Adelaide 8.10 (58) Skilled Stadium
R16 2005 Geelong 18.18 (126) d Port Adelaide 7.5 (47) Skilled Stadium
Betting
Geelong $1.60, Port Adelaide $2.30
_________________________________
This game is worth so much more than four points.
A Grand Final humiliation means that Port will be jumping out of their skin to regain some respect. Geelong, meanwhile, will waste no time digging at the mental scars of their creation; another win against Port would build a serious psychological barrier between them and a potential Premiership threat.
At the selection table, Geelong has almost a quarter of its Grand Final team absent. Premiership heroes King (St Kilda), Nathan Ablett (pondering the meaning of life) Ottens (ankle), Rooke (calf) and Wojcinski (finger) will all be missing and so the match presents the real first test for quite some time of Geelong’s famed depth.
Mark Blake gets his chance to prove that his Grand Final omission was a mistake. Trent West debuts after solid pre-season ruck form. Tom Hawkins will slip into the void left by Nathan Ablett. Ryan Gamble has been rewarded for his lively work up forward over summer and Kane Tenace has yet another opportunity to carve out his niche.
On Port’s side of things, the medical room looks much more sparse with Michael Wilson being the only forced absentee.
The absence of Brad Ottens draws immediate concern about the ability of Blake and West to combat Lade and Brogan. After all, the ill-famed decision to omit Blake and include Steven King was based on the premise that the bigger bodies of Port’s ruckmen would pose problems for Blake.
But the desire by Blake to silence his doubters will be strong. He is still on the steep curve of improvement that young ruckmen experience at his age, 22. Criticisms of his game in the past have centred around his competitive ability at around the ground contests and, at times, his foot skills. There is little doubt he would have spent a large chunk of his summer rectifying this.
The other thing driving Blake now is what he sees in his rear-view mirror – Trent West. In some ways West poses a more significant threat to Blake than King did in 2007. West, at 198cm and 90kg, moves well across the ground and has excellent skills below his knees for a player of his size. West excelled at VFL level last season, averaging 23 hitouts and 13 possessions a game. Blake will need to be at his best, and on the improve, to hold out the pressure that West will exert in 2008.
Lade and Brogan will provide a serious headache for Geelong, particularly around the stoppages in Port’s forward line. The Burgoynes, Motlop and Rodan are a handful at the best of times. But on the receiving end of first-class service from their ruck division, they will be even more potent.
Perhaps one other question mark over the Cats will be their ability to cover the loss of Nathan Ablett. At times in 2007, the younger Ablett looked lost and lacking in motivation – such signs would prove to be telling. Tom Hawkins – all 197cm and 105kg of him – will step into the role. One gets the feeling that the Cats would have wanted to ease him in through another half season in the VFL. Without that luxury though, we’ll get to see a sink or swim experiment play out with a precocious young talent.
The question will be whether Geelong can plug the holes and get enough ball through the midfield to counter a hungry and determined Port team. Geelong’s midfield looks imposing and on paper, the selected side minus five premierships stars barely looks weaker.
Ordinarily, the ruck advantage alone wouldn’t be enough to tip the balance in favour of a side that, on one view, starts 119 points behind. But Port are a quality side and a proud club. They have quality all over the ground – a strong forward six, a speedy and skilful midfield and a dependable, if lacking in stars, defence.
On this occasion, the revenge factor and Ottens absence just tip the scales in favour of the Power.
Port by 13 points.
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September 28, 2007
GRAND FINAL PREVIEW
Geelong v Port Adelaide
MCG, Saturday 2:30pm
Teams
Geelong
Backs: Harley Scarlett Hunt
Half-backs: Mackie Milburn Wojcinski
Centres: Corey Bartel Enright
Half-forwards: S Johnson Mooney Selwood
Forwards: Chapman N Ablett Stokes
Followers: Ottens Ling Rover: G Ablett
Interchange: King Byrnes Kelly Rooke
Emergencies: Varcoe Blake Prismall
In: King
Out: Blake
Port Adelaide
Backs: Pettigrew Thurstans Surjan
Half-backs: Cassisi Chaplin P Burgoyne
Centres: Salopek K Cornes Rodan
Half-forwards: Motlop Tredrea Pearce
Forwards: Lade Westhoff Ebert
Followers: Brogan C Cornes Rover: S Burgoyne
Interchange: Boak Symes Logan Wakelin
Emergencies: Carlile Bentley Lonie
In: Symes
Out: Wilson (Achilles)
Umpires
McInerney, McLaren, McBurney
Past five
R21 2007 Port Adelaide 16.10 (106) d Geelong 15.11 (101) Skilled Stadium
R9 2007 Geelong 16.20 (116) d Port Adelaide 8.12 (60) AAMI Stadium
R15 2006 Geelong 9.14 (68) d Port Adelaide 8.10 (58) Skilled Stadium
R16 2005 Geelong 18.18 (126) d Port Adelaide 7.5 (47) Skilled Stadium
R5 2005 Geelong 15.9 (99) d Port Adelaide 15.5 (95) AAMI Stadium
Betting
Geelong $1.40, Port Adelaide $2.80
_________________________________
Well, this is it. There’s not need to build it up any more than it has been. This is Geelong’s greatest shot at breaking its 44-year premiership drought in two generations of Abletts.
The list of accolades to date – Minor premiers, Brownlow medallist, nine All-Australians, the Rising Star, the VFL Premiership, AFL MVP player and coach – although impressive, will all be forgotten if the biggest prize of them all, is not held high by Tom Harley and Mark Thompson on Saturday afternoon.
Geelong enters the game as warm favourites, although you wouldn’t know it by watching the media coverage this week.
Mark Williams has taken every opportunity to talk up his team as what he says, is a more experienced, faster, stronger (and your writer is certainly starting to think, “higher”) unit.
It’s common practice for Choco to take a mouthy approach to the build up to a big game. He did it before the sides met in round 21 and there’s little doubt he’d be under the illusion that it worked.
But the media, Williams and the many-headed have quickly forgotten the circumstances in which that game was played. Bartel pulled out of the game with appendicitis, Cameron Ling with a hamstring and Joel Selwood, perhaps at the peak of his season’s form, was rested in line with Bomber’s policy of pacing first year players.
Injuries and omissions aside, with seconds to play, the Cats snatched the lead in what was nearly an unlikely victory. The win for the Power was anything but convincing.
But to give credit where credit is due, Port have earned the right to take on the Cats for the flag. They finished in second place on the ladder after home and away matches ahead of others including West Coast, Collingwood and North Melbourne. They won both their finals including their preliminary final against the Kangaroos convincingly.
The upside for Port is twofold. Around half their side, as well as their coach, know how to win a flag. It was only 3 years ago that they upset the more fancied Brisbane juggernaut. Secondly, Port have premiership-calibre players. Cornes, Burgoyne, Cornes, Burgoyne and Lade, in particular. These are players whose names when uttered in 20 years time, will not sound odd with the words “double…” or “triple…”- “…premiership player” in front of them.
But they come up against a team unparalleled in its decoration this season. A team that, if it wins tomorrow, will be seen as a modern great. Arrogance on Port’s part at this time is wholly misplaced.
Port have openly said they will try to run Geelong “off their legs”.
The beauty of Geelong this season is an ability to win a lock-down or win a shoot-out. It is the hallmark of a great team. An open, free-flowing, run-‘til-you-drop game will hold no fear for the Cats. They’ve prided themselves on their fitness and put faith in their hard work.
Port managed to shut down the corridor in the round 21 encounter. They will try to do so again tomorrow. But they can’t have it both ways. Shutting down the corridor takes great discipline and application. Midfielders, wingers and flankers must zone off their man and occupy space in the centre square when not in possession of the ball. Their opponents get pushed wide, in front and behind the ball. After a turnover, there’s no room to run. They will get the ball in the corridor but Geelong will already have numbers back. Bombing the ball into Geelong’s defence spells death, so accomplished are Harley, Scarlett and Milburn at marking and spoiling.
Geelong dealt with the best lock-down team going around last week. Geelong is the best shoot-out team. Either way, Port has a hell of a job on its hands.
We cannot forget that Geelong are warm favourites for a reason. Highest scoring team for the season. Lowest points conceded. A streak of fifteen wins broken only by a meaningless and narrow loss while undermanned. Finishing the home and away season with a strong win interstate. A belting of the fourth placed Roos by even more than Port won by. And finally, getting over a most determined Collingwood outfit who, if they had won, would have just about been favourites in this Grand final.
At 5:30pm on Saturday afternoon, the football world will be collectively nod and with a slap of palm to forehead say, “That’s why Geelong were the best team all season. What was I thinking?”
Geelong look like a premiership team already. Tomorrow will confirm it.
GEELONG BY 27 POINTS
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September 21, 2007
Preliminary Final Preview
Geelong v Collingwood
MCG, Friday 7:50pm
Teams:
Geelong
B: Harley, Scarlett, Hunt)
HB: Mackie, Milburn, Wojcinski
C: Corey, Bartel, Enright
HF: Johnson, Mooney, Selwood
F: Chapman, Ablett, Stokes
FOLL: Ottens, Ling, Ablett
I/C: Blake, Byrnes, Kelly, Rooke
EMERG: Varcoe, Prismall, Gardiner
Collingwood
B: Clement, Wakelin, Lockyer
HB: H.Shaw, O'Brien, Goldsack
C: Clarke, Burns, Buckley
HF: Maxwell, Rocca, Pendlebury
F: Thomas, Cloke, Rusling
FOLL: Richards, O'Bree, Davis
I/C: Swan, Fraser, Didak, Medhurst
EMERG: Licuria, Stanley, Bryan
IN: Fraser
OUT: Bryan
Umpires:
McBurney, McInerney, McLaren
Past 5:
R15 2007 Geelong 11.14 (80) d Collingwood 9.10 (64) MCG
R8 2006 Collingwood 22.14 (146) d Geelong 6.8 (44) MCG
R11 2005 Collingwood 18.13 (121) d Geelong 14.12 (96) Telstra Dome
R15 2004 Geelong 12.22 (94) d Collingwood 9.11 (65) Telstra Dome
R18 2003 Collingwood 14.13 (97) d Geelong 10.13 (73) Telstra Dome
Betting:
Geelong $1.26 Collingwood $3.75
___________________________________________
The season is getting pointier by the week.
Geelong’s marvellous achievements throughout the home and away season – including most recently, nine All-Australians – are becoming less and less relevant as we enter the cut-throat part of the finals.
There’s no doubt the Pies are a good “on-paper” match up for Geelong. They have the forward line height and flair that is most likely to trouble Geelong’s defence, especially sans-Egan and with a susceptible Josh Hunt. They have a good defensive mix with enough height and versatility through Clement, Wakelin and O’Brien and enough run through Shaw, Clarke and Lockyer. The midfield, while lacking the depth of Geelong’s, still boasts quality players and users in Burns, Buckley, Didak, Pendlebury and Swan.
Geelong has good match-ups in all of these areas so it’s not a case of saying either team has a decisive edge in any area of the ground, again “on-paper”.
The reason Geelong has won so many games this season is the way they have clicked as a team and the way they have blown oppositions apart.
Geelong look to jump from the blocks and pile on scoreboard pressure early (Geelong have lost only 3 out of 23 first quarters this year). They will pump the ball forward quickly and regularly hoping to overwhelm the opposition’s defence. They will isolate Mooney one-on-one because he loves the ball high and long. Wakelin will need assistance from a third man up. Johnson and Stokes have been very dangerous at the spills.
They will rebound the ball extremely well from their own defensive half. Scarlett, Harley and Milburn are excellent in the air so Collingwood will need to avoid bombing the ball indiscriminately. Once in possession, the ball is fed out to the likes of Enright, Mackie and Wojcinski who carry the ball toward the centre of the ground and look for midfield targets. Geelong play on at all costs. They don’t give the opposition a chance to man the mark or to pick up a player who has broken free ahead of the play. By keeping the ball hot, the opposition doesn’t get a chance to close the play down. The ball is put in the hands of Ablett, Mackie and Selwood to move the ball inside 50 as they do it so well.
Collingwood thrive on keeping the game tight and under pressure. If they can manage to do this for four quarters they are in with a big show. It’s a massive ask though. Geelong’s style of game is to absorb pressure (don’t be under any illusion that they can’t do this – they are one of the best pressure teams going around) and break the game open when the opportunity arises. In games when they were able to get away frequently the margins were enormous. In games when the opposition did well to shut it down, two or three ten minute bursts were usually enough to put a gap between Geelong and the opposition. Can Collingwood hurt Geelong enough when the game is tight and limit the number and duration of the periods when Geelong breaks free? This is the key in my mind.
Then there is the fitness and preparation issue. Geelong have had a near-ideal preparation with only Egan missing from the best 22 and a week off to rest the niggles. As an already super-fit side, they couldn’t ask for a better preparation. Collingwood on the other hand, have acknowledged that they are up against it with their “low-altitude” return from Perth after a game that went to extra time. They ran that one out well, but at this stage of the season, a big question mark must remain over whether they have the run in their legs to stop Geelong.
Expect an explosive start to the game. If Collingwood has anything left in the tank that’s when it will be shown. If Geelong can absorb the initial barrage, then break the game open as Collingwood wearies, a Grand Final berth awaits.
Geelong by 28 points.
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September 08, 2007
QUALIFYING FINAL PREVIEW
Geelong v Kangaroos
MCG
Sunday, 2:45pm
Teams
GEELONG
Backs: J Hunt Scarlett Harley
Half-backs: Mackie Milburn Wojcinski
Centres: Enright Bartel Corey
Half-forwards: S Johnson Mooney Selwood
Forwards: Chapman N Ablett Stokes
Followers: Ottens Ling G Ablett
Interchange: Blake Byrnes Kelly Rooke
Emergencies: Hawkins Varcoe King
In: Rooke Bartel
Out: Egan (broken foot) Varcoe
KANGAROOS
Backs: Pratt Brown Archer
Half-backs: Sinclair Watt Smith
Centres: Wells Simpson Harvey
Half-forwards: Edwards Hale Sansbury
Forwards: Jones Petrie Grant
Followers: McIntosh Rawlings Harris
Interchange: Swallow Firrito Gibson McMahon
Emergencies: Lower Hansen Harding
In: Firrito
Out: Green (suspended)
Umpires
Margetts, McLaren, Jeffrey
Past five
R20 2007 Geelong 17.16 (118) d Kangaroos 13.13 (91) Telstra Dome
R5 2007 Kangaroos 18.10 (118) d Geelong 15.12 (102) Skilled Stadium
R17 2006 Kangaroos 13.12 (90) d Geelong 8.12 (60) Manuka Oval
R2 2006 Geelong 22.6 (138) d Kangaroos 10.9 (69) Skilled Stadium
R9 2005 Geelong 22.14 (146) d Kangaroos 8.13 (61) Skilled Stadium
Betting
Geelong $1.25, Kangaroos $3.65
______________________________
Well, this is it. This is what we've been waiting for all season. The Big Stage. The stuff that matters.
Geelong's stellar home and away season – winning 18 games including a 15 game streak - has given them ideal position going into the finals. Perched atop of the ladder, the Cats get a home final and the prospect of a week off should they defeat the Kangaroos.
The news going into this game was mixed for the Cats.
Confirmation that rising star centre half back Matthew Egan had broken his foot threw an unwanted complication to finals planning. Egan has had a breakout year and made the position his own, giving Geelong the luxury of playing Scarlett in a more attacking role and Harley on the dangerous medium and small forwards. It has been a combination that has worked sublimely.
Now the Cats must shuffle. It will be horses for courses, so with the Roos only featuring two tall forwards in Hale and Petrie, the Cats may not need to upset the balance too much. Keeping the hands of the Roos defence full with three tall options of our own – Mooney, Nathan Ablett and a resting Ottens – should ensure that the Roos can't create a mismatch.
On the plus side, Brownlow contender Jimmy Bartel and hard nut Max Rooke will be a welcome return to the Geelong midfield.
Bartel missed just two games after his appendectomy and Rooke has made a long awaited return after receiving alternative therapy on his troubled hamstring in Germany.
These inclusions bring Geelong's formidable midfield back to full strength. Something that our forwards and the likes of Joel Corey, James Kelly and Gary Ablett will benefit from.
An interesting stat leading into the finals is the way that sides have performed against other finals sides throughout the year. In this regard, Geelong, not surprisingly, finished the season with eight wins and three losses (Kangaroos, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide). The Roos, on the other hand, fare no where near as well. The Roos won just three against the other top seven sides (Geelong, Sydney and Hawthorn) and went down on seven occasions. On that measure, one wonders whether the Roos' top four finish flatters their form to some extent.
The midfield battle between the sides is once again intriguing. Last time they met, Bartel was dominant with 36 possessions. The Roos cannot let him dictate like that again so expect Adam Simpson to try to clamp down on him.
That leaves Cameron Ling without an opponent after blanketing North's captain in keeping him to just 10 possessions in the round 20 encounter. The Kangaroos most dangerous player, and Brownlow rival to Ablett and Bartel, is Brent Harvey. It's hard to see North winning the game without Harvey collecting 25 possessions and kicking a couple of goals. For this reason alone, Ling should get the job. When Harvey goes forward, Enright should take him and Ling should look to create a scoring option for the Cats. Ling's 27 goals this season have been a revelation within a midfield that has traditionally struggled to kick goals.
There's little doubt Brady Rawlings will take on Gary Ablett again. Ablett showed why he is a Brownlow contender when these two last went head-to-head with Ablett managing to shake the tag for 31 possessions and two telling goals. Rawlings wants, and needs, revenge for the Roos to win the match.
The other battle being anticipated is that between All-Australian contender Hamish McIntosh and Cats in form big man Brad Ottens. Their numbers for the season read remarkably similarly. McIntosh played three more games so on averages, McIntosh shades Ottens in possessions (16 to 13) and hitouts (18.7 to 18.3), but Ottens' determination and versatility are exemplified by his lead in tackles (3 to 1) and goals (17 to 10 for the season). In their last encounter, McIntosh had 14 possessions, 18 hitouts and a goal, while Ottens had 16 possessions, 21 possessions and a goal. Perhaps on that reading, it will be the side that doesn't give away an advantage when Hale and Blake relieve their first choice team mates.
Geelong are rightfully solid favourites going into this game. They are the team to beat after finishing three games clear on top of the ladder. Just three weeks ago, the Cats did not look to troubled in despatching with a keen Roos outfit. The Cats look to have the edge in the midfield and will trouble the Roos again with their scoring power. The Roos will rely on a few – Harvey, Wells and McIntosh in particular – to get them over the line. Hold two out of three of those and Geelong will not be troubled.
Geelong by 30 points.
Posted by catempire at 12:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 25, 2007
Round 21 Preview
Geelong v Port Adelaide
Skilled Stadium
2:10pm Sunday
Teams
GEELONG
B: Milburn, Scarlett, Harley
HB:, Mackie, Egan, Wojcinski
C: Kelly, Enright, Corey
HF: S.Johnson, Mooney, Varcoe
F: Chapman, N.Ablett, Stokes
FOLL: Ottens, Ling, G.Ablett
I/C: Hunt, D.Johnson, Blake, Byrnes,
EM: Playfair, Gardiner, Callan
IN: Byrnes, Blake, D.Johnson
OUT: King, Selwood (general soreness), Bartel (appendix)
PORT ADELAIDE
B: Wilson, Thurstans, Pettigrew
HB: P.Burgoyne, Chaplin, Surjan
C: Cassisi, K.Cornes, Rodan
HF: C.Cornes, Tredrea, Ebert
F: Lade, Westhoff, Motlop
FOLL: Brogan, S. Burgoyne, Pearce
I/C: Boak, Logan, Salopek, Wakelin
EM: Carlile, Mahoney, White
IN: Logan, Wakelin
OUT: Carlile, Thomson
Umpires
James, Kennedy, Head
Past five
R9 2007 Geelong 16.20 (116) d Port Adelaide 8.12 (60) AAMI Stadium
R15 2006 Geelong 9.14 (68) d Port Adelaide 8.10 (58) Skilled Stadium
R16 2005 Geelong 18.18 (126) d Port Adelaide 7.5 (47) Skilled Stadium
R5 2005 Geelong 15.9 (99) d Port Adelaide 15.5 (95) AAMI Stadium
QF 2004 Port Adelaide 18.9 (117) d Geelong 9.8 (62) AAMI Stadium
Betting
Geelong $1.24, Port Adelaide $3.75
__________________________________
The Cats fended off yet another finals contender last weekend but another awaits this Sunday in the form of one of the surprise packets of the season, Port Adelaide.
Port have been impressive in climbing their way inside the top four in a season in which many thought they would struggle to make the finals. A win against the Cats would go a long way to securing a home final and a double chance.
For Geelong, it remains business as usual. Well, nearly.
Having top spot sewn up, the Cats had the luxury of resting young gun Joel Selwood for this match. Steven King was spelled to allow for the return of the vastly improved Mark Blake.
But on Friday, the news emerged that star midfielder and Brownlow contender, Jimmy Bartel, had emergency surgery to remove his appendix.
With Selwood and Bartel extracted from the Geelong midfield, Port will have its greatest chance of upsetting the ladder leaders.
Port are impressive with their speed across the ground combined with the class of the Cornes and Burgoyne brothers. Their forward line is as potent as any with Tredrea, Ebert, Motlop and Westhoff on patrol.
But this will be Port's greatest test yet. They were embarrassed by Geelong at their own home ground in round nine. The Cats jumped out to a huge lead by the half time break and the deplorable conditions meant Port were never a chance to get back. The Power will be after revenge here, and Geelong minus a few stars will be their perfect chance.
Geelong on the other hand, has spruiked it's one-week-at-a-time mantra ad-nauseum while vowing that it doesn't see the need to drop a game before a heavy tilt at the finals. At home, in sunny conditions against another serious finals contender, Geelong will not want to give an inch.
Geelong's midfield, whilst lacking two key movers is still fearsome. Joel Corey is in career best form and is the perfect foil to the brilliant Gary Ablett. Cameron Ling will look to deny Kane Cornes the same freedom that Hawthorn gave him last week.
And up forward, Port's defence will have its hands full with the in form Mooney and Steve Johnson, complimented by classy smalls in Chapman and Stokes.
Port will give this a fearful shake, but there's no compelling reason to go against the dominant side of the competition here.
Geelong by 21 points.
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August 18, 2007
Round 20 Preview
Kangaroos v Geelong
Telstra Dome
2:10pm Sunday
Teams
KANGAROOS
B: Green, Watt, Rawlings
HB: Smith, Firrito, Pratt
C: Sinclair, Harris, Grant
HF: Harvey, Jones, Archer
F: Hale, Petrie, McMahon
FOLL: McIntosh, Simpson, Wells
I/C: Sansbury, Swallow, Campbell, Brown
EM: Lower, Edwards, Moran
IN: Brown, Campbell
OUT: Thomas, Moran
GEELONG
B: Milburn, Scarlett, Harley
HB: Wojcinski, Egan, Mackie
C: Kelly, Bartel, Corey
HF: S.Johnson, Mooney, Selwood
F: Chapman, Ablett, Stokes
FOLL: Ottens, Ling, G.Ablett
I/C: Enright, J.Hunt, Varcoe, King
EM: Blake, Gardiner, Byrnes
IN: Hunt, Chapman
OUT: D.Johnson, Byrnes
Past 5
R5 2007 Kangaroos 18.10 (118) d Geelong 15.12 (102) Skilled Stadium
R17 2006 Kangaroos 13.12 (90) d Geelong 8.12 (60) Manuka Oval
R2 2006 Geelong 22.6 (138) d Kangaroos 10.9 (69) Skilled Stadium
R9 2005 Geelong 22.14 (146) d Kangaroos 8.13 (61) Skilled Stadium
R12 2004Geelong 14.10 (94) d Kangaroos12.12 (84) Skilled Stadium
Betting
Kangaroos $3.75, Geelong $1.25
________________________________
A fresh challenge awaits the Cats this round as they take on the most recent team to take four premiership points off them – the Kangaroos.
After round 5 of this season the tension in Geelong reached near breaking point after the Roos inflicted Geelong's third loss of the season in what appeared to be yet another epitome of a Geelong side that promised so much but was to deliver so little.
Who would have thought that what would follow from that game was a string of victories by Geelong that has made the league and the premiership favouritism their own?
And so Geelong will find itself with fresh motivation as it takes on the Shinboner spirit. Geelong will be keen to atone for its round 5 effort, but will also be motivated to avoid giving a finals contender a 2-0 record against it coming into September.
The Cats dispatched with a hungry Adelaide last weekend. It was simply a case of more of the same. Geelong has made a habit of destroying teams early in the first quarter, toying with them in the middle period of the game before finally demolishing them in the final stanza. Adelaide were the unfortunate recipients of this very treatment last Saturday.
But the Kangaroos bring with them quite a different prospect. This is a side that has defied its critics – particularly those of its senior coach, Dean Laidly – and has transformed itself into a top four and premiership contender. Without much fuss or fashion, the Kangaroos are a formidable opponent in any week because they rely not on a Wayne Carey, Chris Judd or Jonathan Brown. The Kangaroos are a team in the purest form of the word. They are young, fit and enthusiastic for the contest.
Geelong must be on its game if it is to continue its streak.
So often in the modern game the match is won and lost in the midfield. This game is no different. North's Harris, Grant, Simpson and Wells will need to limit the effectiveness of the red-hot and in-form Geelong engine room consisting of Bartel, Ablett, Corey and Ling.
On the slick Telstra Dome surface, the league's highest scoring team will be on show again. At the other end, the most frugal defense going around will choke down on the royal blue and white.
Geelong's resolve shows no signs of wavering. It has been reported that the team has gained no self-satisfaction in locking in the minor premiership. It would be a brave person to tip against a team that has won 14 matches in a row. I am not that man. Call me a coward.
Geelong by 30 points.
Posted by catempire at 11:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 03, 2007
Round 18 Preview
Geelong v Richmond
Skilled Stadium
Saturday, 2:10pm
Teams
Geelong
Backs: Milburn Scarlett D Johnson
Half-backs: Mackie Egan Harley
Centres: Corey Bartel Wojcinski
Half-forwards: Kelly Mooney Selwood
Forwards: S Johnson Ottens Stokes
Followers: Blake Ling Rover: G Ablett
Interchange: N Ablett Byrnes Hunt King
Emergencies: Varcoe Gardiner Tenace
In: King Out: Enright (shoulder)
Richmond
Backs: King Thursfield J Bowden
Half-backs: Raines Polak Newman
Centres: Tambling Deledio Connors
Half-forwards: Pettifer Hughes Edwards
Forwards: Brown Riewoldt Richardson
Followers: Simmonds Johnson Rover: Foley
Interchange: Tuck Graham McGuane Tivendale
Emergencies: Jackson Moore Pattison
In: Deledio Tivendale Graham
Out: Moore Pattison Krakouer
New: Angus Graham, 20, Calder U18
Past 5
R6 2007 Geelong 35.12 (222) d Richmond 9.11 (65) Telstra Dome
R9 2006 Richmond 17.8 (110) d Geelong 12.18 (90) Skilled Stadium
R22 2005 Geelong 10.9 (69) d Richmond 10.8 (68) Skilled Stadium
R1 2005 Geelong 25.10 (160) d Richmond 15.8 (98) MCG
R19 2004 Geelong 16.18 (114) d Richmond 11.17 (83) MCG
Umpires
Farmer, Hendrie, Goldspink
Betting
Geelong $1.02, Richmond $11
________________________
The telling number from the preview stats presented above is that which represents the return on your investment of blind faith in Richmond winning. You don’t often see a team showing 10-1 in a two horse race, but the circumstances surrounding this game certainly warrant it.
The two main factors influencing this are the margin the last time these two sides met – 157 points – and the polar location of the respective sides on the ladder.
Geelong humiliated Richmond in Round 6 of this season. Heading into that game the Cats were well and truly under the pump. Two successive losses, firstly to Hawthorn in Launceston and then to the Kangaroos at Skilled, had Geelong fans reliving nightmares of 2006 that Costa and Cook had assured the faithful they would not have to endure again.
But Richmond were winless at that stage, and the hapless Tigers were just what the Cats needed to jump-start their season. They have never looked back; the drubbing of the Tigers has launched the Geelong juggernaut to 12 straight wins.
For the Cats, this reintroduction to the Black and Gold, will simply be business as usual. The Round 6 encounter will not even be spoken about. The 11 wins since count for nothing. The strength of this current Geelong side (formerly its greatest foe) is managing expectations. The only expectations these players have are that they won’t be let down by their team mates. In return, each player feels responsible to hold up his end of the bargain.
Geelong will have too much confidence and class for Richmond. It’s just too hard to see any area of the ground in which Richmond will provide trouble to the Cats.
The one notable team change is the return of former captain Steven King. The Cats are no doubt taking this opportunity to take a run at the finals with three fit ruckman. A fit King would merely be a luxury to the Cats at this stage of the season, such is the positive contribution that the Ottens-Blake combination is currently making. But Blake is still green, so the more experienced King could be valuable come finals when the heat is turned up.
Since the only way Geelong could lose is complacency and there is no sign whatsoever that it is about to rear its ugly head, the Cats will push the century margin against the Tigers for the second time this season.
Geelong by 80 points.
Posted by catempire at 04:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 27, 2007
Round 17 Preview
Fremantle v Geelong
Subiaco, 4:10pm Saturday
Teams
Fremantle
Backs: Black McPharlin Grover
Half-backs: Thornton Johnson Mundy
Centres: M Carr Hasleby Headland
Half-forwards: Solomon Pavlich Farmer
Forwards: Hayden Drum Tarrant
Followers: Sandilands J Carr Rover: Bell
Interchange: Crowley Duffield Gilmore McManus
Emergencies: Cook Schammer Warnock
In: Sandilands Farmer
Out: Dodd (shoulder bruising) Warnock
Geelong
Backs: Milburn Scarlett Enright
Half-backs: Mackie Egan Harley
Centres: Corey Bartel Wojcinski Half-forwards: Byrnes Mooney Selwood
Forwards: S Johnson N Ablett Stokes
Followers: Ottens G Ablett Rover: Ling
Interchange: Blake Kelly Hunt D Johnson
Emergencies: Varcoe King Hawkins
In: Scarlett N Ablett
Out: Hawkins Chapman (adductor)
Past 5
R8 2007 Geelong 14.10 (94) d Fremantle 10.9 (69) Skilled Stadium
R12 2006 Geelong 18.10 (118) d Fremantle 6.16 (52) Subiaco
R10 2005 Fremantle 14.7 (91) d Geelong 11.16 (82) Skilled Stadium
R20 2004 Geelong 9.21 (75) d Fremantle 3.7 (25) Skilled Stadium
R5 2004 Fremantle 18.9 (117) d Geelong 14.7 (91) Subiaco
Betting
Fremantle $2.25, Geelong $1.60
__________________________
Posted by catempire at 03:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 20, 2007
Round 16 Preview
Geelong v Western Bulldogs
Friday, 7:40pm
Telstra Dome
Teams
Geelong
Backs: Milburn Scarlett Enright
Half-backs: Mackie Egan Harley
Centres: Corey Bartel Wojcinski
Half-forwards: Chapman Mooney Selwood
Forwards: S Johnson Hawkins Stokes
Followers: Ottens Ling Rover: G Ablett
Interchange: Blake Kelly Hunt Byrnes
Emergencies: D Johnson King Varcoe
In: Byrnes
Out: Varcoe
Western Bulldogs
Backs: McMahon Harris Morris
Half-backs: Gilbee Williams Hargrave
Centres: Higgins West Akermanis
Half-forwards: Giansiracusa Johnson Hahn
Forwards: Eagleton Darcy Robbins
Followers: Street Cooney Rover: Boyd
Interchange: Everitt Harbrow Murphy Ray
Emergencies: Addison Skipper Wight
In: West
Out: Addison
Past 5 encounters
R1 2007 Western Bulldogs 17.11 (113) d Geelong 13.15 (93) Telstra Dome
R16 2006 Geelong 13.12 (90) d Western Bulldogs 13.11 (89) Telstra Dome
R4 2006 Western Bulldogs 14.14 (98) d Geelong 14.13 (97) Telstra Dome
R17 2005 Western Bulldogs 20.13 (133) d Geelong 14.14 (98) Telstra Dome
R6 2005 Geelong 16.12 (108) d Western Bulldogs 11.7 (73) Skilled Stadium
Betting
Geelong $1.40, Western Bulldogs $2.80
______________________________________
The freshest challenge for the Cats is this week taking on the Bulldogs on their home turf at the Telstra Dome.
The Bulldogs sit a game inside the eight and would desperately want to win this one to keep them in top four contention.
Geelong, on the other hand, is two games clear on top. Their motivation will be derived from wanting to make amends for their round one performance against the Dogs and from wanting to maintain that birds-eye view of the other teams.
The Cats have won ten on the trot and haven’t looked too troubled by any side during that period. What’s important is that there’s room for improvement in this team. While the Cats have quite successfully held out, muted and ultimately beaten all-comers, there have been periods during games where opposition sides have looked dangerous and Geelong’s skills have looked less than polished.
A key this week for Geelong will be who to play on Brad Johnson. In round one, Harley and Scarlett were both tried with zero success (Johnson kicked 8). Harley played out that match with a badly damaged finger (he had surgery following the game and missed the next 8 matches) while Scarlett was in no where near the form that he is currently enjoying. So expect one of these two to get another crack. With the form of Scarlett at the moment, matching him against Johnson is almost certain.
Geelong have Gary Ablett in red hot form and a stoked midfield firing alongside him with Bartel, Corey, Ling, Selwood, Kelly and Chapman ably assisting the Brownlow favourite. Without Cross, it will be critical for the Dogs for West to come up for the game. Ling, already with ten or so high profile scalps to his name this season, will get the job if West plays.
Geelong’s backline has been outstanding during its run of victories. Scarlett, Egan, Harley, Mackie, Enright and Milburn are an extremely well-balanced unit. The question mark will be over whether the Bulldogs structure gives Geelong trouble as it is on the small side where as Geelong’s back six are on the tall side.
“Due for a loss” is a common throw away line in this type of situation, but there is a steely resolve about this Geelong side that doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of wavering.
Recent encounters between the sides – save for round 1 this season where Johnson got away from Geelong – have been extremely close. There’s not much reason to believe that this game will be any different.
It’s hard to tip against a side that has won ten on the trot but if any side is to upset the apple cart, it will be the Bulldogs. The Dogs’ style of play tends to trouble Geelong.
But Geelong have too many in form players at the moment and are working so well as a team. The Bulldogs wins against the Cats in recent times have mainly been against poor or mediocre Geelong sides but this occasion will bring a much different task. The Dogs haven’t been in their best form recently and will need to step up another level or two to knock off a near full strength, super confident and in form Geelong.
Geelong by 18 points
Posted by catempire at 10:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 14, 2007
Round 15 Preview
Geelong v Collingwood
MCG, Saturday, 2:10pm
Teams:
Geelong
Backs: Milburn Scarlett Enright
Half-backs: Mackie Egan Harley
Centres: Corey Bartel Wojcinski
Half-forwards: Chapman Mooney Varcoe
Forwards: S Johnson Hawkins Stokes
Followers: Ottens Ling Rover: G Ablett
Interchange: Blake Kelly Hunt Selwood
Emergencies: Gardiner Byrnes D Johnson
In: Hunt
Out: Tenace
Collingwood
Backs: Johnson Wakelin O'Brien
Half-backs: H Shaw Goldsack Maxwell
Centres: Clarke Burns Licuria
Half-forwards: Thomas Cloke Davis
Forwards: Didak Rocca Lockyer
Followers: Fraser O'Bree Rover: Swan
Interchange: Iles Medhurst Pendlebury Bryan
Emergencies: Lonie Reid Cook
In: Rocca Bryan
Out: Reid Cox
Umpires:
McBurney, Margetts, Rosebury
Past 5:
R8 2006 Collingwood 22.14 (146) d Geelong 6.8 (44) MCG
R11 2005 Collingwood 18.13 (121) d Geelong 14.12 (96) Telstra Dome
R15 2004 Geelong 12.22 (94) d Collingwood 9.11 (65) Telstra Dome
R18 2003 Collingwood 14.13 (97) d Geelong 10.13 (73) Telstra Dome
R3 2003 Collingwood 18.8 (116) d Geelong 10.9 (69) MCG
Betting:
Geelong $1.53, Collingwood $2.40
The Hunt-ed
Atop the AFL ladder, two games and substantial percentage clear of West Coast, Geelong is starting to feel what it’s like to have a target on your back.
Perhaps West Coast, after being the dominant home and away side for the past three seasons, is licking its wounds for this very reason.
The longer the Cats’ winning streak extends (it currently stands at nine), the greater the pressure seems to get as focus turns to the team that everyone wants to knock of its perch.
This week it’s Collingwood’s turn.
The Pies were widely regarded at the beginning of the year as being a side that may struggle with an imbalance of experience and youth. Looking at their list, they just seemed to have too many players who had seen the back of their best footy (Buckley, Burns, O’Bree, Wakelin, Licuria), and not enough that were in their prime. On the positive side though, they had plenty of exciting young prospects that, if they were able to find their feet, could propel Collingwood up the ladder. And that’s exactly what has happened.
O'Brien, Heath Shaw, Goldsack, Clarke, Thomas, Cloke (third Cloke lucky) and Pendlebury are all super young talents. Malthouse has done a magnificent job of blending these kids into his team to offset the slowing legs of his aging stars and to complement his core of players.
Geelong is in a different phase. The Cats have generally only played one or two first year players at any one time. Selwood and Hawkins have been impressive but by no means the difference between the all-conquering Geelong of 2007 and the self-imploding side of last year.
Instead it is the stability of Geelong’s core – it’s very large core – as well as a step up to elite status by Gary Ablett and Bartel that have made a huge difference to this side.
So it is with this setup that this weekend’s clash between Geelong and Collingwood brings great anticipation to the whole competition.
Added to the mix are a number of varied and interesting factors which make tipping the result with any degree of certainty an absolute nightmare.
Take for example:
- how much motivation will Geelong have to rectify the result from last year’s game (a 102 point drubbing by the Pies);
- what impact the alleged Geelong flu will have;
- how much impact will Balme’s inside knowledge give;
- will Wakelin, O’Brien and Goldsack be able to hold the highest scoring team in the competition;
- will Josh Hunt’s inclusion help the Cats address their Achilles heal – holding dangerous small forwards (of which, Collingwood has two very good ones in Davis and Thomas);
- who will win the midfield battle between Bartel, Ablett and Ling and Burns, O’Bree and Swan;
- which ruck duo – Ottens and Blake or Fraser and Bryan- will give their midfield first use and hurt the opposition by going forward;
- will Collingwood be able to employ successfully for four quarters, the tactics Sheedy used to keep touch with the Cats for three quarters last week; and
- what impact, if any, will a huge MCG crowd and finals-like atmosphere have?
Obviously, the answers to these questions hold the key to the match.
Geelong seem to have a clear edge in class in the midfield and have a proven record this season as the best team statistically in attack and second best in defence. However, the weather, if wet as predicted, may nullify Geelong’s advantage in this regard.
If there’s any truth to the rumour that the flu has gone through the Cats group then an upset is definitely on the cards.
Collingwood have the ability to play the game well when it’s in close and contested but also have players like Shaw, Davis and possibly most of all, Thomas, who can break it open when the opportunity presents. This is possibly a mix that will trouble Geelong if it doesn’t have its game on.
All of that is enough to err on the side of the Pies. While loathed to subscribe to the concept of being “due for a loss”, if ever a team were, Geelong is now.
Collingwood by 8 points.
Posted by catempire at 10:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 05, 2007
Round 14 Preview
Essendon v Geelong
Telstra Dome
Friday 7:40pm
Teams
Essendon
B: Slattery Michael M Johnson
HB: McPhee Ryder Hislop
C: McVeigh Ramanauskas Nash
HF: Hird Lucas Welsh
FOR: J Johnson Fletcher Davey
FOLL: Laycock Watson Rover: Peverill
INTER: Dyson Lovett Hille Johns
EMER: Camporeale Monfries Bolton
IN: Hislop Ramanauskas Dyson Hille Johns
OUT: Lloyd (suspended) Winderlich (hamstring) Stanton (ankle) Bolton Camporeale New: Tom Hislop, 19, Tasmania U18
Geelong
B: Milburn Scarlett Enright
HB: Mackie Egan Harley
C: Corey Bartel Wojcinski
HF: Chapman Mooney Varcoe
F: S Johnson Hawkins Stokes
FOLL: Ottens Ling Rover: G Ablett
INTER: Blake Kelly Tenace Selwood
EMER: Hunt Prismall D Johnson
IN: Tenace Hawkins
OUT: N Ablett (hip) Rooke (hamstring)
Umpires
Vozzo, McBurney, McInerney
Last 5
R11 2006 Geelong 20.10 (130) d Essendon 13.10 (88) Telstra Dome
R18 2005 Essendon 16.11 (107) d Geelong 13.16 (94) Telstra Dome
R4 2005 Geelong 19.17 (131) d Essendon 11.9 (75) Telstra Dome
SF 2004 Geelong 10.14 (74) d Essendon 9.10 (64) MCG
R9 2004 Geelong 18.12 (120) d Essendon 14.13 (97) Telstra Dome
Betting
Essendon $3.55, Geelong $1.28
__________________________
It's sentiment versus momentum tomorrow night at the Telstra Dome when ladder leaders, Geelong, take on Essendon.
Although the game will be James Hird's 250th AFL match, remarkably, it's another occasion altogether that will stir the black and red. Adam Ramanauskas makes his second comeback to AFL football after battling cancer.
In any other game you'd just about ink-in a win to Essendon with so much emotional fuel for them in this game. But this is no ordinary game.
The Bombers meet a rampaging Geelong outfit fresh from its eighth straight win. The Cats have defeated all comers including both Grand Finalists from the past two years and both South Australian teams in Adelaide.
So it is with that foundation that this match brings so much anticipation.
A sell out crowd will watch two teams that few would have considered would be in the positions these teams currently find themselves, first and fifth on the ladder.
A closer look at the recent records of these two teams gives significant insight. While Geelong's wins have been both numerous, large and against quality opposition, Essendon's previous three wins have been by a total of four points. In their wins against cellar-dwellers Melbourne and Richmond, they found themselves behind deep into red time in both matches only to find something extra to get them over the line.
At face value that's not the kind of form a team would want to carry into a game against the top side of the competition. But in addition to the sentimental boost they will no doubt receive, one should not be too quick to discount that good teams tend to win close matches. Essendon have done that and should be given the according respect.
Essendon have made five changes for the match, with the most significant being the loss of skipper Matthew Lloyd to a controversial suspension. This is somewhat counterbalanced by the return of first-choice ruck David Hille, although question marks must exist over the ability of the Bombers to kick a winning score against the competition's number one defensive and attacking outfit.
Geelong suffered two forced changes with Max Rooke succumbing once again to a hamstring injury and Nathan Ablett not able to shake a hip and knee problem. But with the brevity of Geelong's current injury list, the Cats have the luxury of slotting back Kane Tenace and exciting first year player, Tom Hawkins.
Geelong have thwarted their opposition this season with a lethal combination of frugal defence and scintillating attack. Essendon's immediate concern will be how to kick enough goals on Scarlett, Egan and Harley and how to stop Mooney, Ottens, Hawkins and, perhaps the most dangerous of them all, Steve Johnson.
But it is in the midfield where Essendon will be up against it. Brownlow favourite, Gary Ablett, and his partner in crime Jimmy Bartel (who looks to have pulled up well from a head and neck injury scare) as well as specialist extractor Joel Corey will be more than a handful for the Bombers. James Hird will look to spark Essendon but they will need plenty of first use from Jason Johnson and Jobe Watson if they are to have any chance.
Overall, while it is tempting to tip with sentiment in a game such as this, too many signs point to another Geelong victory.
Geelong by 20 points.
Posted by catempire at 11:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 29, 2007
Round 13 Preview
Geelong v Sydney
Skilled Stadium
Saturday, 2:10pm
Teams
Geelong
B: Milburn Scarlett Enright
HB: Mackie Egan Harley
C: Corey Bartel Wojcinski
HF: Chapman Mooney Varcoe
F: S Johnson N Ablett Stokes
FOLL: Ottens Ling Rover: G Ablett
INTER: Blake Kelly Selwood Rooke
EMERG: Hunt Tenace D Johnson
IN: Rooke
OUT: Tenace
Sydney
B: Richards Barry Dempster
HB: Bevan C Bolton Mathews
C: Ablett Kirk Malceski
HF: O'Keefe O'Loughlin J Bolton
F: Davis Goodes Buchanan
FOLL: Jolly McVeigh Rover: Fosdike
INTER: Everitt Laidlaw Moore Schmidt
EMERG: Schneider Thornton Vogels
IN: Davis Laidlaw Moore
OUT: Hall (groin) Grundy Schneider
NEW: Matthew Laidlaw, 20, Oakleigh U18
Past 5
R20 2006 Geelong 14.6 (90) d Sydney 9.9 (63) Skilled Stadium
R5 2006 Sydney 15.17 (107) d Geelong 13.7 (85) Telstra Stadium
SF 2005 Sydney 7.14 (56) d Geelong 7.11 (53) Sydney Cricket Ground
R15 2005 Sydney 16.9 (105) d Geelong 7.9 (51) Sydney Cricket Ground
R16 2004 Geelong 11.11 (77) d Sydney 9.8 (62) Skilled Stadium
Betting
Geelong $1.26, Sydney $3.50
___________________________
The length of this preview is directly proportional to the likely level of scoring in tomorrow's match between Geelong and Sydney.
Geelong comes off the week's break looking to extend its winning run to eight.
Sydney, it's season rapidly slipping away after an unexpected loss to Collingwood last week, needs to win badly.
A body blow was delivered to the Swans during the week with the loss of out of form Barry Hall to a groin injury. For the Swans, already lacking fire power having failed to score more than 75 in its past three outings, it was news they did not need.
The question for Geelong will be what impact, if any, the mid-season break had on it, the in-form team of the competition. Another win here, against a desperate Swans outfit, will cement top spot for the Cats with at least a game and percentage clear. A loss however, will bring the doubter back in droves.
There's not much to like, desperation aside, about the Swans chances. Conversely, there's no reason to doubt the Cats who have even managed the luxury of dropping Kane Tenace to make room for Max Rooke.
In a tight, possibly wet, match, the Cats should prevail comfortably.
Geelong by 25 points
Posted by catempire at 10:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 16, 2007
Round 12 Preview
Geelong v Brisbane Lions
Sunday 1.10pm
Skilled Stadium
Teams
Geelong
B: Milburn Scarlett Enright
HB: Mackie Egan Harley
C: Corey Bartel Wojcinski
HF: Chapman Mooney Varcoe
F: S Johnson N Ablett Stokes
FOLL: Ottens G Ablett Rover: Ling
INTER: Blake Selwood Kelly Tenace
IN: Selwood
OUT: Rooke (suspended)
Brisbane Lions
B: MacDonald Merrett Brennan
HB: Adcock Drummond Copeland
C: Notting Lappin Stiller
HF: Sherman Brown Selwood
F: Rischitelli Patfull Wood
FOLL: Charman Black Rover: Hadley
INTER: McGrath Proud Begley Roe
IN: Wood McGrath Proud Roe
OUT: Clark (quad) Schmidt Allan Hooper
New: Albert Proud, 18, Mt Gravatt
Umpires
Stevic, Allen, Kamolins
Betting
Geelong $1.08, Brisbane $7
__________________________
Geelong, on top of the ladder on the back of their sixth straight win, host a flailing Brisbane side at Skilled Stadium this weekend. The Cats are one of the shortest priced favourites to take the field in 2007.
Geelong took on extra respect last weekend with a win over Adealide at AAMI stadium in a match played in Adelaide's style and on a ground where Geelong has an atrocious record. While Geelong has destroyed several teams with a high-scoring, free-flowing style of game, Adelaide was successfully able to restrict the game to an arm wrestle.
But this game shapes as another cricket score for the Cats.
The Lions, after an impressive start to the season, have not won a match since round 6. A combination of inexperience, injuries and too much reliance on Jonathan Brown, have been their undoing. This week's clash against the Cats does not suggest any respite is near.
Geelong have lost Max Rooke to suspension but have the luxury of bringing in talented youngster Joel Selwood. Brisbane, meanwhile, will rue the loss of exciting prospect Mitch Clark.
Back on home turf, Geelong will look to continue their streak and consolidate their position at the top of the ladder in anticipation of a home final and double chance.
Cameron Ling will once again be charged with stopping the opposition's best midfielder. This time Simon Black is the unlucky chap.
The Cats will be happy to go head to head over the rest of the ground. They will back Bartel, Ablett and Corey to outplay Lappin, Hadley and Rischitelli.
Matthew Egan will have the unenviable task of taking on Brown. But he has acquitted himself well against quality opposition recently and Brown will not have an easy task against the rising centre half back. Look for the likes of Milburn and Enright to provide critical support in filling space and cutting of supply to Brown.
At the other end of the ground, Daniel Merrett will take on Cameron Mooney and MacDonald, Adcock and Copeland will have their hands full with the lively Chapman, Steve Johnson and Stokes.
The Cats simply look to have too much going for them in this match. It will take something very much out of the ordinary to prevent a ten goal win here. Brown is the x-factor but you just can't see him getting enough supply from the midfield in the face of red hot form from Bartel and Ablett.
Geelong by 60 points
Posted by catempire at 11:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 09, 2007
Round 11 Preview
Adelaide v Geelong
Sunday 12.40pm
AAMI Stadium
Teams
Adelaide
B: Johncock Rutten Bassett
HB: McLeod Stevens Torney
C: Doughty Shirley Mattner
HF: Ricciuto Bock Thompson
F: Porplyzia McGregor Welsh
FOLL: Hudson Goodwin Rover: Edwards
INTER: Griffin van Berlo Knights Jericho
IN: Jericho McGregor
OUT: Perrie (shoulder) Reilly (ankle)
Geelong
B: Milburn Scarlett Enright
HB: Mackie Egan Rooke
C: Corey Bartel Wojcinski
HF: Chapman Mooney Varcoe
F: S Johnson N Ablett Stokes
FOLL: Ottens G Ablett Rover: Ling
INTER: Harley Tenace Blake Kelly
No change
Field umpires
Head, Ryan McInerney
Past 5
R13 2006 Adelaide 21.21 (147) d Geelong 8.7 (55) AAMI Stadium
R12 2005 Geelong 9.7 (61) d Adelaide 8.9 (57) Skilled Stadium
R21 2004 Adelaide 15.19 (109) d Geelong 12.15 (87) AAMI Stadium
R6 2004 Geelong 15.11 (101) d Adelaide 8.10 (58) Skilled Stadium
R10 2003 Adelaide 11.10 (76) d Geelong 8.11 (59) lost to Skilled Stadium
Betting
Adelaide $2.05, Geelong $1.70
catempire's clips
* Geelong haven't won a home and away match at AAMI stadium since 2000.
* Geelong will take top spot on the ladder with a win
* Adelaide travelling indifferently, Geelong flying
“No change”. Two words that assure any supporter that their team is travelling nicely. This week Geelong fans are certainly under no illusion of that fact.
The Cats have won five on the trot now after despatching St Kilda at the Dome last Sunday evening. After being challenged in the first half, Geelong put on the afterburners in the second and had too much run, pace, polish and forward power for St Kilda to handle.
This week is a new challenge for Geelong and shapes as a great match. The Cats clear leaders of the league in scoring while the Crows have been renowned for the frugality in recent years. Mooney, Nathan Ablett and Ottens will take on the Adelaide defence spearheaded by Ben Rutten. Geelong's small forwards in Steve Johnson and Travis Varcoe will need to be on their game against the attacking half backs in McLeod and Johncock.
Geelong will take plenty of confidence to AAMI after demolishing the Power at the venue two weeks ago. And if top spot on the ladder isn't enough motivation, Mark Thomspon need only have plastered to the change room wall the score line from the previous encounter between the teams, where the Crows embarrassed the Cats to the tune of 92 points.
But this week's match presents a vastly different climate.
Geelong are sure to be Premiership favourites if they can account for the Crows. Adelaide were in a similar position in the teams round 13 encounter last year.
Adelaide have been disappointing thus far. Two losses this season already at AAMI as well as becoming the first victim of Melbourne last weekend have fallen well short of pre-season expectations of the Crows.
Adelaide will attempt to shut down Geelong's running game and turn it into a 12-goal a piece stoush. They'll need to make sure Bartel, Ablett and Corey don't have the run of the midfield clearances to go any way to achieving this.
Cameron Ling will look to chalk up yet another victim this week and Simon Goodwin already has a huge target painted on his back.
You get the feeling that Geelong could take this one right away from Adelaide if things go their way early. An out of sorts Crows outfit could be steamrolled by the white hot Cats.
But if Adelaide can keep it tight early they may be able to germinate those seeds of doubt that must surely still exist in Cat minds. In a close run game you'd like your money on the Crows.
Geelong have done nothing though to make me doubt them yet. So I'll put it on the line for them once again.
Geelong by 45 points.
Posted by catempire at 03:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 03, 2007
Round 10 Preview
St Kilda v Geelong
Telstra Dome
5.10pm Sunday
Teams
ST KILDA
B: Blake, Hudghton, L.Fisher
HB: Attard, S.Fisher, Baker
C: Gilbert, Ball, Gram
HF: Montagna, Riewoldt, Fiora
F: Milne, Gehrig, Koschitzke
FOLL: Rix, Hayes, Dal Santo
I/C: Armitage, Birss, X.Clarke, Gwilt
EM: R.Clarke, Thompson, Voss
IN: Gram, Hudghton, Montagna, X.Clarke
OUT: M.Clarke (inj), Harvey (hamstring), McQualter, Voss
GEELONG
B: Mackie, Scarlett, Enright
HB: Rooke, Egan, Milburn
C: Wojcinski, Bartel, Kelly
HF: Chapman, N.Ablett, S.Johnson
F: G.Ablett, Mooney, Varcoe
FOLL: Ottens, Corey, Ling
I/C: Blake, Tenace, Stokes, Harley
EM: Hunt, Selwood, Hawkins
IN: Harley, Chapman
OUT: Hunt, Selwood
Field umpires
Ryan, Ellis, Pannell
Past 5
R19 2006 St Kilda 15.13 (103) d Geelong 11.14 (80) Telstra Dome
R7 2006 Geelong 12.10 (82) d St Kilda 9.10 (64) Telstra Dome
R19 2005 St Kilda 13.18 (96) d Geelong 8.7 (55) Telstra Dome
R7 2005 Geelong 18.11 (119) d St Kilda 15.11 (101) Telstra Dome
R18 2004 Geelong 15.11 (101) d St Kilda 15.4 (94) Skilled Stadium
Betting
St Kilda $3.50, Geelong $1.27
For the past four seasons, Geelong and St Kilda have shared a mini-rivalry borne of a desire to lay claim to the title of most talented young Victorian team. While the rivalry still simmers, both clubs have underachieved during that period.
Such has been the eveness between the teams, that since 2004, they have played each other twice per year and have looked back at the end of each season with won one match each on the board.
But the teams go into this match on very different footing.
Geelong is in some of the best form the club has seen in the past four seasons. A crushing win over Richmond was followed by impressive performances against the Eagles, Fremantle and the Power. The Cats' attacking and running game is the talk of the AFL. Now second in the Premiership betting, Geelong will quickly become the hunted.
St Kilda, on the other hand, can hardly string two consistent performances together. After consecutive wins against Carlton and St Kilda one might have been forgiven for thinking the Saints were on the finals charge again. But losses to Hawthorn and Fremantle since have cast a pall over St Kilda's season. St Kilda will need to win Seven or eight matches our of their last 13 to threaten the final eight.
For St Kilda to trouble Geelong in this match they must find a way to counter Geelong's dominant game plan. The Cats have mastered the ability to score from their clearances, leading the league in this regard. While Steven Baker has taken Gary Ablett in the past, the Saints may look to him to negate one of Joel Corey or Jimmy Bartel who are leading the way as clearance kings.
Look for St Kilda to press significant numbers back behind the ball. This is a gameplan that has troubled Geelong in the past and is perhaps the only way St Kilda could come away with the points here. But the way Geelong has been moving the ball this season – with blistering pace, long kicking and movement through the corridor – the flood may not be enough for St Kilda to win. Expect Geelong to relish a return to the enclosed Telstra Dome and the fast track that it brings.
Cameron Ling will again get a big job on one of St Kilda's prime movers. Nick Dal Santo has been in hot form recently and could be ruing the close checking that Ling will no doubt pay him. Max Rooke may get one of Ball or Hayes should they see too much of it early.
There doesn't seem to be any good reason to pick against the Cats this week. They are in hot form and come up against an indifferent Saints outfit. In the past, Geelong may have dropped a match such as this, but for some reason, the Cats haven't looked like dropping “matches like this” lately. Why should they start now?
Geelong by 36 points.
Posted by catempire at 11:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
May 24, 2007
Round 9 preview
Port Adelaide v Geelong
AAMI Stadium
Sunday, 4.40pm
Squads:
Port Adelaide
B: Pettigrew Wakelin Surjan
HB: Lonie Thurstans Cassisi
C: Salopek S Burgoyne K Cornes
HF: Motlop White P Burgoyne
F: Lade Tredrea Ebert
FOLL: Brogan C Cornes Rover: Pearce
INTER: From: Bentley Boak DeLuca Krakouer Rodan Symes Thomas
IN: Boak Deluca Krakouer Surjan
OUT: Mahoney
Geelong
B: Enright Scarlett Mackie
HB: J Hunt Egan Milburn
C: Wojcinski Bartel Kelly
HF: Selwood N Ablett S Johnson
F: G Ablett Mooney Varcoe
FOLL: Ottens Corey Rover: Ling
INTER: From: Blake Rooke Stokes Tenace Harley Hawkins Prismall
IN: Harley Prismall Hawkins Mackie
OUT: D Johnson (calf)
Last 5 encounters:
R15 2006 Geelong 9.14 (68) d Port Adelaide 8.10 (58) Skilled Stadium
R16 2005 Geelong 18.18 (126) d Port Adelaide 7.5 (47) Skilled Stadium
R5 2005 Geelong 15.9 (99) d Port Adelaide 15.5 (95) AAMI Stadium
QF 2004 Port Adelaide 18.9 (117) d Geelong 9.8 (62) AAMI Stadium
R10 2004 Port Adelaide 18.8 (116) d Geelong 17.10 (112) AAMI Stadium
Betting:
Port Adelaide $1.75, Geelong $2.00
catempire’s clips:
• Geelong won the previous encounter between these two teams at AAMI, Geelong’s only win against the Power at the venue.
• Port haven’t beaten Geelong since the Qualifying final of 2004 – the year in which Port went on to win the flag.
• The two teams are playing for 2nd place on the ladder.
"We try and make it (going interstate) meaningless. It's a game of footy, on a bit of grass, 18-on-18 on the field at one time, and play to your potential." - Mark Thompson
The football world is becoming increasingly familiar with abrasive responses to seemingly innocuous questions from Mark Thompson.
The question here probed Thompson about the importance of the woeful interstate record Geelong will take to AAMI Stadium this round to against Port Adelaide.
But aside from his impatience with the media, Bomber must be happy with how his side is traveling. A near record score against the hapless Tigers, a coming-of-age victory against firm flag favourites West Coast and a gritty win against the Dockers have been the making of this.
But this is a new week and a new test.
While the Power have surprised all with their climb up the ladder to second position, the Cats in third place still have more than their fair share of doubters. And it's not without good reason. Geelong has earned a reputation as the most frustrating to follow, both for avid fans and for punters and tipsters. The past few weeks have made inroads into arresting that view, but this week's match presents another opportunity for the Cats to earn respect.
The Cats have named skipper Tom Harley on the extended interchange bench. Andrew Mackie has walked straight back into the 18 after missing last week with knee soreness. While David Johnson has succumb to a calf injury. On the other side, Josh Mahoney has been omitted.
The wide open spaces of AAMI will pose a challenge a challenge to Geelong as the Power have proven to be a fast and skillful side in the first 8 rounds, with the Burgoynes and Pearce leading the charge. Cameron Ling will likely get another key job on one of those three, while another Cat - possibly Joel Corey - will also play the shadow. For Port, Kane Cornes will look to negate a red-hot Jimmy Bartel.
Port was found wanting against Sydney on Sunday so will be looking to bounce back this week at home.
But Geelong's form can't be faulted and they appear to have a resolve that can take them places. If they are the real deal they will win this match taking better form going into the match.
Geelong by 8 points
Posted by catempire at 10:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
May 19, 2007
Round 8 Preview
Geelong v Fremantle
Skilled Stadium, Saturday 2:10pm
Geelong
B: Enright Scarlett Mackie
HB: D Johnson Egan Milburn
C: Wojcinski Bartel Kelly
HF: Selwood N Ablett S Johnson
F: G Ablett Mooney Varcoe
FOLL: Ottens Corey Rover: Ling
INTER: Blake Rooke Stokes Tenace
EMERG: Prismall Hunt Playfair
IN: Rooke
OUT: Hawkins
Fremantle
B: Hayden Grover Johnson
HB: Dodd McPharlin M Carr
C: Black Hasleby Mundy
HF: Crowley Pavlich Headland
F: Bell Tarrant Solomon
FOLL: Sandilands McManus Rover: J Carr
INTER: Campbell Duffield Walker Webster
EMERG: Cook Gilmore Warnock
IN: Solomon
OUT: Gilmore
Past 5
Round 12 2006 - Geelong 18.10.118 @ Fremantle 6.16.52
Round 10 2005 - Geelong 11.16.82 v Fremantle 14.7.91
Round 20 2004 - Geelong 9.21.75 v Fremantle 3.7.25
Round 5 2004 - Geelong 14.7.91 @ Fremantle 18.9.117
Round 12 2003 - Geelong 10.12.72 @ Fremantle 13.10.88
At This Ground: Geelong 8, Fremantle 1
In The 2000s: Geelong 6, Fremantle 4
Coaches: Thompson 3, Connolly 4
Umpires: 5 James, 22 Wenn, 29 Jeffery
Betting: Geelong $1.36, Fremantle $3
This is a danger match, I'm sorry but as soon as we won last week I lost count of the amount of times I said, this win doesn't mean anything if we lose next week to Fremantle. It's important we put two solid weeks of football together against two quality sides (disregards current record). Will be very interesting to see how we cope with the double punch of Pavlich & Tarrant, and also how Ottens & Blake go against the man mountain Sandilands.
Geelong to make Fremantle pay for the rolling huddle crap they put us through in 2005. Cats by 24 points
Posted by Sammy D at 11:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
May 03, 2007
Round 6 Preview
Richmond v Geelong
Telstra Dome, Sunday 5:10pm
Richmond
Backs: Newman McGuane Gaspar
Half-backs: J Bowden Polak Raines
Centres: Johnson Deledio King
Half-forwards: Jackson Hughes Meyer
Forwards: Tambling Schulz Richardson
Followers: Simmonds Oakley-Nicholls Foley
Interchange: From: Tuck Pettifer White Edwards Hyde Howat Moore
In: White Moore Howat Meyer
Out: Tivendale
Geelong
Backs: Enright Scarlett Mackie
Half-backs: D Johnson Egan Milburn
Centres: Wojcinski Bartel Kelly
Half-forwards: Chapman N Ablett S Johnson
Forwards: G Ablett Mooney Varcoe
Followers: Ottens Corey Ling
Interchange: From: Blake Tenace Selwood Prismall Hawkins King Stokes
In: Ottens Tenace S Johnson
Past 5
R9 2006 Richmond 17.8 (110) d Geelong 12.18 (90) Skilled Stadium
R22 2005 Geelong 10.9 (69) d Richmond 10.8 (68) Skilled Stadium
R1 2005 Geelong 25.10 (160) d Richmond 15.8 (98) Melbourne Cricket Ground
R19 2004 Geelong 16.18 (114) d Richmond 11.17 (83) Melbourne Cricket Ground
R4 2004 Geelong 19.13 (127) d Richmond 11.12 (78) Telstra Dome
Betting
Richmond $2.50, Geelong $1.50
___________________________________
Can Richmond get on the scoreboard?
Can Geelong stop the bleeding?
These are the main two points of interest coming out of this weekend's clash between Richmond and Geelong.
The Tigers will be looking to avoid their worst start to a season since 1962 while the Cats will be looking to win back respect and possibly save their coach's hide.
The winless Richmond has not been blown off the park yet this season and has arguably played top 8 teams in 4 out of its 5 matches. They will be hungrier than ever to get a win on the board and they will no doubt see the inconsistent Cats as perfect prey.
On the other side sits the infuriating Geelong. After big wins against Carlton and Melbourne it looked as though the demons of 2006 had been exorcised. But coming up against determined sides has always spelt trouble for the Cats and Hawthorn and the Kangaroos were indeed the epitome of determination.
In ability terms, there's no doubt that Geelong should have Richmond's measure. But if there's anything Geelong fans have learned in the past two weeks its that ability alone doesn't win you matches.
If Geelong have been stung by the embarassment and criticism they've endured over the past week, they will account for Richmond come Sunday twilight. So long as they've learned to take nothing for granted, to always pay their opponents due respect and to play hard and accountable football, they will take four points back down the highway.
For the final time this season, they have my blind faith.
Geelong by 40 points.
Posted by catempire at 08:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 28, 2007
Round 5 Preview
Geelong v Kangaroos
Skilled Stadium
2:10pm Sunday
Teams
GEELONG
Backs: Enright Scarlett Mackie
Half-backs: D Johnson Egan Milburn
Centres: Wojcinski Bartel Stokes
Half-forwards: Chapman Mooney Kelly
Forwards: Hawkins N Ablett G Ablett
Followers: King Ling Rover: Corey
Interchange: Blake Prismall Selwood Varcoe
In: Selwood Varcoe
Out: J Hunt Byrnes
KANGAROOS
Backs: Archer Petrie Gibson
Half-backs: Pratt Watt Firrito
Centres: Wells Harris Rawlings
Half-forwards: Adams Brown Swallow
Forwards: Campbell Edwards Harvey
Followers: McIntosh Grant Rover: Simpson
Interchange: From: Jones Grima Sinclair Green Smith Moran Trotter
In: Adams
Out: Thomas (chest)
New: Leigh Adams, 19, Eastern Ranges
Past 5 clashes
R17 2006 Kangaroos 13.12 (90) d Geelong 8.12 (60) Manuka Oval
R2 2006 Geelong 22.6 (138) d Kangaroos 10.9 (69) Skilled Stadium
R9 2005 Geelong 22.14 (146) d Kangaroos 8.13 (61) Skilled Stadium
R12 2004 Geelong 14.10 (94) d Kangaroos 12.12 (84) Skilled Stadium
R17 2003 Kangaroos 16.8 (104) d Geelong 12.14 (86) Manuka Oval
Betting
Geelong $1.25, Kangaroos $3.70
Geelong should consider themselves lucky that the Kangaroos broke their drought at Carrara at the weekend. The Roos have a canny knack of pulling off a win when their backs are against the wall and had they not managed to overcome Brisbane, Geelong would have been faced with an even more determined outfit in this coming match.
But the Kangaroos have faced yet another week of off-field drama with speculation surrounding a possible permanent move to the Gold Coast. While that issue appears to have been put to bed (for now), it would not surprise to see the Roos put in another spirited performance on Sunday afternoon.
At the selection table, Geelong has recalled Joel Selwood after he was rested from the trip across Bass Strait. He replaces Josh Hunt who has been relegated to the VFL to find some form. Travis Varcoe has been included in place of Shannon Byrnes, whose wayward kicking for goal has finally caught up with him.
The Kanagroos have added debutant and rookie Leigh Adams, last season’s under 18 Vic Metro captain. He comes in after exciting youngster Lindsay Thomas succumbed to a chest injury.
Geelong will be looking to reinvigorate its tall forward setup which, after looking particularly potent against Carlton and Melbourne, was found wanting in the windy conditions in Launceston. But with wet weather forecast for Sunday afternoon, Mooney, Nathan Ablett and Hawkins may once again find things difficult.
For the Kangaroos, Grant, Harvey, Simpson, Wells and Harris will again be looking to provide their forwards with first use. Those five combine for 115 possessions against Brisbane last week, so Geelong will likely play at least a couple of stopping roles with Ling on Simpson and David Johnson to get Wells.
Geelong’s midfield lineup has been spearheaded superbly by Jimmy Bartel who stands second in the league for possessions after Round 4. Doubt remains over his partner in crime, Gary Ablett, who sustained a nasty cork to his calf against Hawthorn and is no certainty to take his place in the selected side.
With the wet weather forecast, the midfield tilted in favour of the Roos and the forward line power in favour of the Cats, one is tempted to tip the Kangaroos.
But Geelong will have been stung after its lack-lustre performance against the Hawks, and with its first game in front of a home crowd for the season, they should come out firing. Although likely to be close, Geelong’s class advantage should get them over the line.
Geelong by 9 points
Posted by catempire at 10:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 19, 2007
Round 4 - HAWTHORN v GEELONG
Aurora Stadium
Sunday, 22 April, 1:10pm
Hawthorn
B: Brown Gilham Jacobs
HB: Birchall Hodge Ladson
C: Bateman Sewell Crawford
HF: Young Boyle Franklin
F: Roughead Dixon Williams
FOLL: Campbell Mitchell Rover: Lewis
I/C: From: Dawson Ellis Guerra McGlynn Taylor Thurgood Osborne
IN: Bateman Thurgood Dawson
OUT: Nil
Geelong
B: Enright Scarlett Mackie
HB: J Hunt Egan Milburn
C: Wojcinski Bartel Byrnes
HF: Chapman Mooney Kelly
F: Hawkins N Ablett G Ablett
FOLL: Blake Ling Rover: Corey
I/C: From: D Johnson Tenace King Prismall Selwood Gardiner Stokes
IN: N Ablett Stokes King Gardiner Tenace
OUT: Ottens (hip) Varcoe
Hawthorn have won the past two encounters between these sides by a total of 113 points. In their first match last season, the Hawks surprised the then flag favourites on Geelong's home turf. At the time it was put down to a lapse in concentration, a slip-up and an aberration that would be amended the following week. As it transpired, the Cats would lose their next three and win only one of their next seven matches. The match against Hawthorn was the beginning of the end of Geelong's season.
In Round 22, the two teams met again and the Hawks were only too happy to repeat the dose. Playing for pride only with finals out of the equation, Hawthorn again humiliated Geelong, this time to the tune of 61 points at the Telstra Dome.
And so the upcoming match between the 1989 Grand Final combatants brings with it a strange dynamic. Geelong will enter the match as favourites even though the Hawks have had the upper hand in recent matches. Both sides stand at two wins and a loss but the wins by both teams have been over sides that most would predict won't be taking part in the September action – Melbourne, Carlton and the Kangaroos. The form line going into the match, consequently, is not an easy one to pin down.
At the selection table, Geelong have lost big man Brad Ottens to a hip complaint. His absence is likely to impede the cats, not only in the ruck where he has performed well in the past two matches, but also forward where he has been used in the rotation with Mooney, Nathan Ablett and – the next big thing in town – Tom Hawkins. The injury cloud over Nathan Ablett and Ottens' absence may force the Cats to recall Charlie Gardiner. Steven King's lack of match conditioning and unsuitability to a resting role in the forward line, makes him an imperfect replacement for Ottens.
Geelong have also added speedster Kane Tenace following good form in the VFL, as well as Matthew Stokes who has completed his suspension. Travis Varcoe, who has shown glimpses of flair and strong defensive pressure, has been omitted.
Hawthorn will welcome back Chance Bateman from a thigh injury. Josh Thurgood and Zac Dawson complete the 25-man squad.
Tactically, Hawthorn's two comfortable wins against Geelong in 2006 suggest that Alistair Clarkson and his coaching staff may have the tactical upper hand. Mark Thompson fired the first salvo in the mind games matchup earlier this week, by suggesting that Geelong would have to adjust its gameplan to combat Hawthorn's flooding style. One wonders what Thompson hoped to achieve by making such comments, but one certain result is that Hawthorn will be even keener to prove that they have Geelong's measure, with or without a flood.
Geelong's approach to the game will speak volumes about Thompson's coaching credentials. Often criticised for his one-dimensional game plan and an inability to fight his way out of adversity, the Cats' coach will look to prove that he has more than one string to his bow.
The x-factor in this match is the venue – Aurora Stadium in Launceston. Hawthorn were victorious in their three encounters at the ground in 2006, while the Cats are yet to sight it. This ingredient in the mix makes predicting the outcome between two evenly matched sides even more fraught with danger.
The Cats have been more impressive in the previous two weeks than the Hawks, winning comfortably on both occasions. On the other hand, Hawthorn have only just overcome the Kangaroos and Melbourne. But while this points to a position of strength on Geelong's part, the unfamiliar venue and Hawthorn's strong record in recent meetings, tempers the inclination to tip an easy Geelong win.
Geelong by 12 points
Posted by catempire at 09:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 12, 2007
Round 3 - Melbourne v Geelong
Sunday, 2:10pm AEST, MCG
Teams:
MELBOURNE
B: Holland, Carroll, Whelan
HB: Ward, Wheatley, Bell
C: Moloney, McDonald, Green
HF: Bruce, Miller, Bate
F: Godfrey, Jamar, Davey
FOLL: White, Jones, Johnstone
I/C from: Yze, C.Johnson, Brown, Bizzell, P.Johnson, Ferguson, Petterd
IN: P.Johnson, Bizzell, Ferguson, Yze, Holland, Petterd
OUT: D.Neitz [medial ligament], R.Robertson [knee], J.Rivers [hamstring soreness]
NEW: Ricky Petterd [18yrs, 185cm, 78kg] – Broadbeach QLD, AIS – AFL Academy Graduate, won Harrison Medal for best player in Div 2 NAB National Under 18 Championships in 2007, QLD U18 Captain. Utility player
GEELONG
B: Mackie, Scarlett, Enright
HB: J.Hunt, Egan, Milburn
C: Wojcinski, Bartel, Byrnes
HF: Chapman, Mooney, Kelly
F: N.Ablett, Ottens, G.Ablett
FOLL: Blake, Ling, Corey
I/C from: Gardiner, Prismall, Hawkins, Varcoe, D.Johnson, Selwood, Tenace
IN: D.Johnson, Tenace, Kelly
OUT: -
Field umpires: Ellis, Hendrie, Avon
____________________________________________
“As for Geelong, its big-men deficiencies were highlighted again…”
- Lyall Johnson, The Age, April 2, 2007
“With Nathan Ablett, Mooney and Hawkins all combining, the Cats' prayers for genuine firepower in attack may finally have been answered.”
- Martin Boulton, The Age, April 8, 2007
Although close to the most overused cliché in football, judging by the polarity of the above quotes, a week really is a long time in footy.
Geelong will enter into its match with Melbourne this week on a crest of confidence and youthful exuberance. Just two weeks prior, the knives were out for a team that looked to have learnt nothing and failed to improve on its highly disappointing 2006.
There’s no doubt that the injection of Hawkins and Varcoe gave Geelong a spark against Carlton on Saturday. Hawkins gave the team and fans a glimpse of the Hummer that will be parked in the goalsquare for the next decade, while Varcoe added a new dimension to a Cats forward line that has looked one-dimensional and unimaginative.
Nathan Ablett has turned a corner. Wayne Carey commented earlier this week that the 21 year old now exhibited a “strut” in his movement around the forward line. That’s called confidence. Plenty of pundits neglect the fact that just four seasons ago, Ablett was running around in the under 18 competition of the Bellarine Football League. But what he lacks in traditional football background, he clearly makes up for in genes.
Looking forward to Sunday, Geelong look to have Melbourne covered in all areas of the ground.
Melbourne, like most teams, will struggle to account for Geelong’s three tall forwards, given adequate supply from the Geelong midfield. The loss of Rivers to a hamstring strain will further magnify the issue. Carroll will probably get Mooney but Ben Holland and Wheatley will have to battle a combination of Nathan Ablett, Ottens and Hawkins.
Through the midfield, Geelong with Bartel, Corey and Chapman probably tips the form scales against McDonald, Jones and Johnstone. Brent Moloney, as always, will be keen to impress against his old side, but Melbourne will need to see improvement from stars Johnstone and Bruce if they are to make a match of it against Geelong.
With Neitz and Robertson on the sidelines, the jobs of the Matthews - Scarlett and Egan - become a whole lot easier. Melbourne will play a resting ruckman up forward but be it White or Jamar, they will need to contend with the in form Egan. With Ben Holland required in defence, someone will be unlucky to be lining up against a rampaging Scarlett fresh from making light work of the reigning Coleman Medallist. Not only will Melbourne need Miller to continue his good form, but they will also look to their midfield to manufacture some extra goals.
But despite the paper match-ups, Geelong must not treat the upcoming game lightly.
No one could deny Melbourne have made a poor start to season 2007. A defeat at the hands of St Kilda in the season opener and another loss to the up and coming Hawthorn have placed the Demons in a near-desperate situation. The loss of skipper Neitz, Robertson and Rivers have added to their woes and will make kicking a winning score (and defending one) a near impossible task.
But recent encounters between these sides have produced close-run results. Aside from Geelong’s 55 point demolition of Melbourne in the Elimination Final of 2005, the previous three encounters between the teams have produced a draw and two wins to Melbourne – one by six points and one by one point.
The closeness of recent encounters combined with Geelong’s notorious unreliability when it comes to matches they “should” win, is the only uncertainty over the upcoming result.
That said, you can only tip on form and on form alone, Geelong should prevail.
Geelong by 40 points.
Posted by catempire at 06:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 06, 2007
Round 2: Geelong v Carlton
Sunday 7 April, 2:10pm
Telstra Dome
Teams:
Geelong
B: Mackie Scarlett Enright
HB: D Johnson Egan Milburn
C: Wojcinski Bartel Byrnes
HF: Chapman Mooney Selwood
F: Gardiner Ottens G Ablett
FOLL: Blake Corey Rover: Ling
I/C: N Ablett Hawkins Varcoe Prismall
EMER: J Hunt S Hunt Tenace
IN: Byrnes Hawkins Varcoe
OUT: Harley (finger) J Hunt Tenace
NEW: Tom Hawkins, 18, Sandringham U18; Travis Varcoe, 18, Central District (SA)
Carlton
B: Houlihan O'hAilpin Thornton
HB: Scotland Whitnall Walker
C: Simpson Stevens Lappin
HF: Carrazzo Waite Fisher
F: Kennedy Fevola Betts
FOLL: Cloke Bentick Rover: Murphy
I/C: Ackland Gibbs Russell Wiggins
EMER: Blackwell Grigg Hartlett
IN: Nil
OUT: Nil
It seems every match Geelong plays at the moment is a test. A telling game. It will speak volumes about whether the post season review of 2006 hit the mark and whether the changes implemented over summer have had any traction.
This week is no different.
Geelong comes up against a Carlton side which will be carrying itself confidently. After taking home its second pre-season flag in three years, Carlton managed to overcome Richmond in round 1 after initially having some difficulties.
It was really only a half hour period beginning half way through the third quarter in which Carlton were able to brush Richmond aside. In that time they piled on 7.9 to Richmond's 1.3. Carlton's midfield and running game clicked, with Nick Stevens leading the way. Cameron Ling will no doubt stand at Stevens' side at some point on Saturday night.
Carlton are very Fevola-conscious, perhaps too much so for a team not short of scoring options. They looked for the Shag on no less than 22 occasions against the Tigers and Geelong will be expecting much the same again. Matthew Scarlett, after having a forgettable game against the Bulldogs, will be looking to make amends against his old friend and foe. But Scarlett will need plenty of help from his team mates to occupy space and to run to the “hot spots” which Carlton will go to when a leading option doesn't avail.
The big inclusions for Geelong this week are prize recruits Tom Hawkins and Travis Varcoe. Clearly recognising that the forward structure against the Bulldogs did not work, the selection panel at the Cattery have looked to Hawkins and Varcoe to breath new life. Hawkins' inclusion will release Brad Ottens to the ruck in what could prove to be a match-winning move. Ottens was poor in Geelong's forward line last week but the former All-Australian plays a great deal of football at the stoppages. Facing up against the under qualified duo of Ackland and Cloke, it is unlikely he'll get a better opportunity to stamp his mark on a game.
Once again this is a game that will be won in the midfield. Carlton's Stevens, Walker, Carrazzo, Bentick, Murphy and Gibbs up against Geelong's Ling, Bartel, Corey, Enright, Prismall and Selwood. On paper they are evenly matched, perhaps Carlton having an advantage in speed with Geelong taking the points in experience. Both teams will look to run hard, move the ball quickly and find space. The winning team will have managed to do this better.
One gets the feeling that Carlton are still closer to a bottom than a top of the ladder side. If Geelong struggles to overcome the Blues, the blowtorch and pitchforks will be out in force. On the other hand, a strong win would give fans hope that last week was merely a sub-par game against quality opposition.
Simply looking at prior results – Geelong has beaten Carlton 4 out of the past 5 occasions by an average of 58 points – and taking into account the calibre of opposition that the sides played last week, the balance is tipped in Geelong's favour. An upset would not totally surprise, but the signs point to a Cat win. Geelong by 19 points.
Posted by catempire at 12:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 30, 2007
Round 1 – Western Bulldogs v Geelong
Telstra Dome
Sunday 1 April, 2:10pm
Teams:
Western Bulldogs
B: McMahon Hargrave Morris
HB: Gilbee Wight Griffen
C: Eagleton West Ray
HF: Giansiracusa McDougall Akermanis
F: Murphy Darcy Johnson
FOLL: Minson Cross Rover: Cooney
INTER: From: Addison Boyd Higgins Montgomery Power Robbins Street
NEW: Jason Akermanis, 30, Brisbane Lions; Andrew McDougall, 23, West Coast
Geelong
B: Harley Scarlett Enright
HB: D Johnson Egan Milburn
C: Wojcinski Bartel Mackie
HF: Chapman Mooney Byrnes
F: Gardiner Ottens G Ablett
FOLL: Blake Corey Rover: Ling
INTER: From: N Ablett Selwood Prismall Hunt Playfair Tenace Djerrkura
NEW: Nathan Djerrkura, 18, Wanderers (NT); Joel Selwood, 18, Bendigo U18
An aggregate of 2 points separated these two sides in their encounters last season, with the winner alternating between occasions.
This new season brings renewed hope for both teams. The Bulldogs, after impressing observers last season with their free-flowing, running and attacking style, will be looking to take up where they left off. While Geelong, after a bitterly disappointing 2006, will be looking to kick start 2007 with a win against quality opposition.
On the injury front, both sides have their worries. For Geelong, former skipper Steven King will miss with yet another calf injury. Max Rooke was not considered after missing just about all of the preseason with hamstring strains. And while new captain, Tom Harley, has been named in the side, his contribution to the game must surely be under a cloud after missing the past few weeks with a mysterious leg injury. The Bulldogs will be missing club stalwart Chris Grant which will create a height headache for what might not be the first occasion this year. With Brian Harris already on the sidelines due to suspension, the Dogs will need to innovate to combat the likes of Ottens, Mooney and Nathan Ablett.
Tactically, while at face value these sides are quite different in approach, they also have their similarities. Specifically, the running and attacking style of game that the Bulldogs so effectively deployed last season is just what Mark Thompson would like to see his side do more of in 2007. The injection of youth in Prismall, Selwood and Djerrkura is aimed at just that cause. But the key difference between the teams is the way that they create scoring opportunities. While the mosquito fleet of the Bulldogs will run the ball inside the forward 50 and attempt to hit team mates on leads with regularity, Geelong relies heavily on its three-pronged attack taking contested marks and providing opportunities for Gary Ablett and Chapman on the deck.
Therein lies the key to the outcome of this game. The team that can impose and successfully employ their game style will likely walk away with the four points. So the battle will be won in the midfield. The Bulldogs must win this area of the game if they are to hold Geelong’s scoring power.
Cameron Ling will once again battle Scott West. He will be looking for a repeat of his last encounter where he held West to just 18 possessions. David Johnson will look to continue his good record against Akermanis.
One of Griffin or Morris is likely to get the job on the dangerous Gary Ablett who has been impressive in recent encounters with the Bulldogs, having averaged 22 possessions, 9 marks and over 2 goals per game in his last five outings.
The style of game that the Bulldogs employ brings flank