Round 18 Preview: Geelong V Adelaide at Skilled

Written By: BigFooty Geelong Board Member on July 30, 2009 No Comment

Adelaide have won 8 of their past 9 games, with the only loss in that time coming at the hands of the all-conquering St.Kilda.
They’ve been playing some wonderful, attacking, hard running football in that period as evidenced by their demolition of Port Adelaide in the Showdown last weekend.

Geelong’s recent form has been the subject of much media attention after dropping consecutive games in Rounds 14 and 15, however they’ve bounced back well since with a solid 46 point win against Melbourne followed by last weeks Lazarus like comeback win against the reigning premiers.

Where and when: Skilled Stadium, Saturday, August 1 2.10pm AEST
Head to head: Geelong 14 wins, Adelaide 14 wins
Last time: Geelong 21.8 (134) d Adelaide 13.8 (86), round four, 2009, at AAMI Stadium

FORM
Geelong: WLLWW
Adelaide: WWWLW

History:

Geelong have won the last four matches between the teams by an average margin of 39 points. Overall, these sides have played 28 times since Adelaide entered the competition, with the record standing at 14 wins apiece. At Skilled Stadium it’s a different story however, with Adelaide having only won 3 times in 13 attempts, the last coming in 2003.

Teams:

B: Darren Milburn – Tom Harley – Corey Enright
HB: David Wojcinski – Tom Lonergan – Andrew Mackie
C: Joel Corey – Cameron Ling – Jimmy Bartel
HF: Travis Varcoe – Cameron Mooney – Steve Johnson
F: Paul Chapman – Tom Hawkins – Max Rooke
Foll: Shane Mumford – Joel Selwood – Gary Ablett
Int: Mathew Stokes, Shannon Byrnes, Kane Tenace, Simon Hogan
Emerg: Tom Gillies, Jeremy Laidler, Mark Blake

B: Johncock, Rutten, Doughty
HB: Goodwin, Bock, McLeod
C: van Berlo, Thompson, Reilly
HF: Knights, Stevens, Dangerfield
F: Porplyzia, Tippett, Burton
R: Maric, Vince, Shirley
I/c: Edwards, Symes, Otten, Sellar
Emerg: Walker, Petrenko, Armstrong

In: Edwards.
Out: Martin (knee)

Darren Milburn plays his 250th game for Geelong (becoming only the 7th man to do it), whilst Jimmy Bartel plays his 150th game.

Whilst for Adelaide, champion defender Nathan Bock plays his 100th game and Brad Symes plays his 50th.

2009 Game Averages

Key Matchups:

Corey Enright vs. Chris Knights

Knights has been a revelation since returning to the Adelaide team mid-season and is obviously relishing his new role, which from an outsiders perspective appears to be that of a small, lead up CHF type (and part-time midfielder). Geelong desperately need to curb his influence and the man for such a job is Corey Enright, who has had a remarkable season where he has shutdown countless dangerous forwards whilst still averaging 24 touches himself.

Geelong’s Defence vs. Kurt Tippett

Tippett has been outstanding since being moved to a permanent key forward role mid-season, having kicked 24 goals in his last 7 games.

Despite still being a kid, Tippett is a monster and stopping him will be an imposing task for Geelong’s makeshift defence.

It’s hard to know who will get the job (i’m guessing young Gillies, should he be selected), but what we do know is that both Darren Milburn and Tom Harley will be peeling off their respective opponents to give a chop out to whoever gets the job on Tippett.

Geelong’s smaller, lesser known forwards vs. Adelaide’s running, attacking defenders

In the last meeting between these teams Geelong really exploited the lack of accountability of some of Adelaide’s defenders, who often sacrifice their defensive jobs to run and create off half back. In that game, Geelong’s ‘lesser lights’ in Varcoe, Stokes and and Rooke combined for 7 goals in part due to their defenders playing loose on them.

Do Adelaide back themselves and their gameplan and continue to have their half backs play the running, attacking, creative style they’ve become known for, or do they temper their attacking flair and lock down on Geelong’s dangerous small/medium forwards?

Paul Chapman vs. Michael Doughty

Paul Chapman is in the best form of his career, averaging a remarkable 29 disposals as a forward whilst also kicking goals. Lately opposition teams have recognised his importance to and impact on Geelong’s performances and have started using harder tags on him.

Michael Doughty, despite being in wonderful form in what appears to be a new role as an attacking half back flanker, is still Adelaide’s best small lock down defender and as such, i think he’ll go to Chapman will the sole intention of limiting his impact.

Other matchups

Here’s my guess on how both teams will line up.
I’m probably way out on some of the perspective matchups from Adelaide’s perspective, so Adelaide fans, feel free to correct me.

Adelaide’s Forwardline:

Gillies – Tippett (with Dash Milburn giving him a chop out)
Mackie – Burton
Enright – Knights
Harley – Porplyzia (When playing close to goal)
Lonergan – Stevens/Sellar
Milburn – Dangerfield

Midfield:

Ling – Thompson
Ablett – Shirley
Selwood – Van Berlo
Corey – Edwards
Bartel – Vince

Geelong’s Forwardline:

Rutten – Hawkins
Bock – Mooney
Stevens – Rooke
Otten (if fit) – Johnson
Doughty – Chapman
Johncock/Reilly – Varcoe
Symes/Goodwin – Stokes

I’m guessing Adelaide will want Johncock and Goodwin to play loose across half back, so that’s why i’ve got them alternating with Symes/Reilly.

Under The Radar

Bernie Vince – He is totally unknown outside South Australia yet week in, week out he’s running up and down his wing racking up plenty of the footy and having a real impact on the game. I rate him incredibly highly (higher than Van Berlo and Reilly) and from a Geelong perspective, i’m hoping he doesn’t continue to slip under the radar.

Travis Varcoe – Gets no credit outside the GFC, but this year he’s quietly turned himself from a flashy, sometimes brilliant small forward into a consistent, quality half-forward/midfielder who now wins his own ball whilst still kicking goals and leading the club for goal assists. Last time these teams met Varcoe slipped under the radar and kicked three goals, if given any latitude he’ll again impact on the scoreboard.

Chris Knights – Prior to this year he was seen as an accumulating midfielder with horrible foot skills, but this year he’s reinvented himself and has become a revelation in the Crows forward line. Whilst he’s probably getting more attention now as teams become more aware of his impact, i don’t think his reputation has caught up to his performances so he may continue to slip under the radar this year.

Max Rooke – These days so many people judge players purely on stats which means that players like Max Rooke are often put down as nothing more than ordinary footballers, which is far from the truth. Rooke doesn’t take a heap of marks, he doesn’t even win much of the footy, but what he does do is attack the ball with a viciousness and courage rarely seen, a trait which lifts his teammates and often puts fear and doubt into the minds of his opponents.

Teams tend to focus on stopping Johnson, Chapman and Mooney whilst Max Rooke gets the third or fourth defender, and as we saw last week against Hawthorn, he can have a big impact on the result of the match.

X Factors

Jason Porplyzia - Porplyzia has the ability to create opportunities out of nothing, a talent very few possess, so even if you’ve kept him quiet, he’ll often bob up with an important goal or two at an opportune time. With Geelong’s only genuine medium defenders injured they don’t really have a perfect matchup, which is a worrying sign from a Geelong perspective.

He may need to spend more time up the ground given the depth and quality of Geelong’s midfield, but he’ll still spend enough time close to goal to cause Geelong a headache.

Shannon Byrnes – Many would probably laugh at seeing Byrnes name here, but he really has improved out of sight and turned himself into a potentially damaging goal kicking half-forward/midfielder. He has had a couple of down weeks after hurting his hand against Port Adelaide, but prior to that he’d kicked bags of 4 and 5 whilst also getting the ball 20+ times.

Like Chris Knights, it’s taking a while for his reputation to catch up to this performances and if left alone this weekend, he has the ability to kick 3-4 quick goals to turn the game on it’s head.

Scott Thompson – Thompson is one of those rare midfielders who can win his own footy, tackle hard and often and still have the class and polish to kick a bag of goals.

Cameron Ling has managed to limit his effectiveness over their last few meetings, but if Thompson gets on top he has the ability to win the game for Adelaide.

Steve Johnson - Johnson has missed four games after tearing a muscle in his hip, but prior to that he was remarkably sitting top five in the Coleman Medal standing whilst also managing to rack of 20+ touches each week.

Time and time again he’s shown that he’s got the ability to win games off his own boot and creative countless opportunities for his teammates. He will be underdone this weekend, but Adelaide need to lock him down completely to win the game.

Prediction

Geelong are coming off their best H&A win in recent memory whilst the Crows are coming off a glorious win in the Showdown, so there is a chance that both teams could have a bit of a letdown this week.
Adelaide will want to continue their strong push for a top four position whilst Geelong will have the added incentive of a milestone game for a favourite son and club legend.
The weather could also play a part with the typical Geelong winter day expected (very windy with patchy rain).
Geelong have won 14 straight at Skilled Stadium dating back two years and despite their injury woes and Adelaide’s impressive form, i think the home ground advantage will be enough to get Geelong over the line in a close one.

Cats by 19 points.

by Geelong BigFooty Poster Exhale You (edited by catmanf)